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System: Under on total in non-conference games
A similar system came through for us in Week 9, which I’ll touch upon again in a moment. But that system is very limited this week, whereas this one provides a healthy amount of options.
The under in non-conference games has been cruising all season. Its hit rate is a cool 63.27% at 31-18, which is a slight dip from where it was four weeks ago. Still, calling it a dip when the hit rate was 62.07% (18-11) during that four-week span is a bit much.
Here are the games the system applies to:
- SF @ JAX
- TEN @ TB
- GB @ PIT
- DET @ LAC
My preferred play of the bunch is GB-PIT. That is the only game from the group above in which the AFC team is favored. The under is 20-9 when the AFC is favored this season, with the two plays that applied to this system hitting for us last week. Last season, this play went 29-15-1 (64.4%) to the under. The season before that, it had an absurd 71.1% hit rate (27-11).
Additionally, the Steelers are 4-1 to the under in this setting since 2021. Believe it or not, the Packers are even more favorable to this system, going 5-0 to the under since 2021 when playing as a non-conference underdog.
System: AFC underdogs vs. NFC
It’s been a little bit since I highlighted this system. I opened the season with it, but my preferred play (TEN +3 at NO) was the only one that came through. That type of output wasn’t an outlier for the system this season, at least through the first five weeks. On the season, this play is 10-9-1. But, that’s part of why I like this system this weekend.
In 2022, this system had a 58.3% hit rate (21-13-2). Over the last four weeks, the play has gone 6-4-1, which is the rate at which this play hit last season. So, while the play is trending in the right direction, it hasn’t reached a height that can’t be repeated. There’s still room for this recent trend to continue as a positive correction.
Three of the four games I mentioned in the total-related system above also fit into this one:
- JAX +3 vs. SF
- TEN +1 @ TB
- PIT +3 vs GB
As was the case in Week 1, the Titans are my preferred play of the bunch. They originally opened as the favorites in this one, and there’s been some flip-flopping, so don’t be surprised if you read this and see they’re listed as -1 favorites vs. Tampa Bay.
If you want to chase the extra value and take Tennessee on the ML, that’s totally fair. The Titans are 1-1 on the moneyline as underdogs vs. the NFC this season. But if they somehow get more points as dogs, keep in mind they’re 2-0 in this system this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.