It is crazy to think that we are just one week away from the halfway mark of the 2023 NFL regular season, but here we are in Week 8. It’s a jam-packed schedule this weekend, with 15 games scheduled over Sunday and Monday. The Buffalo Bills got this week started with a win on Thursday, bolstering their record to 5-3 on the season. Let’s take a look at some of my favorite NFL prop bets for Week 8 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
WR A.J. Brown Over 88.5 Rec Yds (-115)
This was one of the easiest decisions I’ve ever made, as A.J. Brown has been unstoppable the last five weeks and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon. Over the past five weeks, Brown has a mind-boggling 701 receiving yards and three touchdowns. That is an average of 140.2 receiving yards per game. It’s safe to say that if Brown has a remotely similar game to either of his last five, this should hit with ease. He has been seeing the ball come his way quite a bit over this five-week period, averaging 8.2 targets per game. He also matched up against Washington in Week 4, where he had his best game of the season, torching them for 175 yards and two touchdowns.
WR Nico Collins Over 56.5 Rec Yds (-125)
I had Collins going over his total earlier this season, and it did not hit. However, that seemed to just be an unlucky week because he has gone over this total in four of his six games this year. Collins just needs to see the ball come his way and he usually will come through. In the two games where he didn’t reach this total, he averaged 3.5 targets per game. In the four games he has gone over this total, he has averaged 8.75 targets per game. Hopefully, Collins will see the rock come his way this weekend, and if he does, I think we are in good shape with this bet.
WR Zay Flowers Over 55.5 Rec Yds (-125)
Flowers has quickly established himself as Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, as he leads the Ravens in targets, catches, and receiving yards in 2023. He has gone over this total in five of seven games so far this year, and in the two games he went under this number, he was only a combined 14 yards short. He is averaging just over 63 receiving yards per game this year and will face off against a Cardinals secondary who are 23rd in the NFL against the pass. I think Flowers gets the over here, and ultimately, the Ravens win their third game in a row.
RB Brian Robinson Jr. Under 39.5 Rush Yds (-110)
This may seem like a small total for a starting running back, but the Eagles have been absolutely dominant against the run this year. Robinson has gone over this total in four of seven games this year, but in the last three weeks, he has gone under in every game. When the Eagles faced off against the Commanders earlier in the year, he barely squeaked over this total with 45 rush yards. I think between the Eagles’ dominance against the run and Robinson struggling the last three weeks, the under will hit here.
RB Josh Jacobs Under 65.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Jacobs has taken a massive step backward this year, going from 4.9 yards per carry in 2022 to 2.9 yards per carry in 2023. This total is shocking to me, as Jacobs has only gone over this number in two of his seven games. To make matters even worse, he will be matching up against the second-best rush defense in the NFL, as the Lions are only giving up 76.3 rush yards per game. Jacobs has had the third most rushing attempts in 2023 but sits 20th in rushing yards. I think the under hits with ease here.
QB Russell Wilson Under 205.5 Pass Yds (-110)
Wilson has only gone over this total in three of seven games this year, and over his last three starts, he has not eclipsed 200 yards. He faced off against the Chiefs only two weeks ago, where he had his worst game of the season, only throwing for 95 yards in Arrowhead. That night, he went 13-of-22 for 95 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions while only completing 59.1% of his passes. It seems like Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs defense had a great plan for Wilson, and look for them to do a lot of the same things on Sunday to hopefully get the same result.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.