Let’s breakdown this awesome college football Week 8 card with some of my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 8 is 35-25-1 (+10.855-units).
Penn State at Ohio State (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
UNDER 47 (-110) — 2-units
Penn State is going to be a popular underdog play this week, with the price getting driven down. This is a really tough call for me on a side, but an early decision on the total.
These are two elite defenses, particularly on the PSU side. The Nittany Lions gave up 15 to West Virginia in Week 1, and then 33 total points since then — that includes two shutouts and no opposing team scoring more than 13 points in a game. Ohio State hasn’t been much worse, holding opponents to single digits three times, and giving up a season-high 17 points to Maryland.
Of course, this is a step up in class for both teams, but I expect defense to lead the charge for both sides. I think the Notre Dame game is a pretty good comparison here, a game that finished 17-14 in favor of the Buckeyes, but easily could’ve finished 14-10. I have a pretty tough time seeing this one turn into a shootout.
Pittsburgh at Wake Forest (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Wake Forest ML (-115) — 1-unit
*Cashing out Wake ML for a full refund (10/18 at 11:33pm) — still -115 on DK. Injury situation for Wake QBs sounds worse than I anticipated. NO BET ON THIS GAME.
The Demon Deacons aren’t exactly having the best season, but I think this sets up as a solid spot for them. Wake is 2-1 at home with a loss to a pretty solid Georgia Tech team, and returns home from a tough two-game road trip. They lost a tight one at Clemson, and then got beat up by Virginia Tech.
Expect a motivated squad returning home, and they get a Pitt team that was in a desperation spot last week — making this play more of a fade on the Panthers for me. Pitt was having a dreadful season, but following the bye and a QB change, got a home game against a Louisville team that was fresh off an upset of the Irish. Pitt dominated on defense and got the outright win as touchdown dogs.
Now Pitt has to go on the road and face the hungry team, much like Louisville was last week. The Demon Deacons have been dealing with some QB injuries, giving us a better number here, but one of their top options will be ready to go here.
*Cashing out Wake ML for a full refund — still -115 on DK. Injury situation for Wake QBs sounds worse than I anticipated. NO BET ON THIS GAME.
Wisconsin at Illinois (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Wisconsin ML (-130) — 1.5-units
This reminds me a lot of two weeks ago when Iowa lost its starting QB and was an extremely short favorite over Purdue. Iowa wound up winning despite the line crashing and a ton of bets on the other side.
Now the team that lost to Iowa last week is in a similar spot, with Tanner Mordecai injured. Wisconsin is still extremely capable of running the ball and playing defense, giving us a terrific discount on the Badgers. The buy low spot also happens to come at a perfect sell high spot on Illinois.
The Fighting Illini stunned Maryland for the Terps’ first loss of the season last week. It was just their second win, with the other coming over Florida Atlantic. Prior to the Maryland game, the likes of Nebraska and Purdue were pummeling this squad.
I expect a big bounce-back from Wisco, and while it may not be a barn burner, this is a very flat spot for Illinois.
Tennessee at Alabama (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Utah at USC (Saturday 8:00 pm ET)
Alabama/USC ML Parlay (-125) — 1.5-units
I grabbed some USC -4.5 at the open, but that number is long gone. So I’ll pair the Trojans with Alabama in a couple of games I like the home teams outright in.
After hitting some lows early in the season, the Crimson Tide are actually playing very well lately. Now they get a revenge spot for the wild loss at Rocky Top last season, with a much worse Vols team coming into Tuscaloosa.
USC just laid a complete egg in South Bend, helping us cash one of our biggest bets last week. That invincible offense led by Caleb Williams looked very human against a good ND defense, and now Utah is on deck. The Utes are also strong defensively, but I expect USC to be much sharper at home off a loss on Saturday night.
If Williams just avoids all those turnovers, the Trojans will be in command of this game. Without Cam Rising, this Utah offense has just been stuck in mud in most matchups. Yes, USC is pretty poor on defense, but Utah is probably going to have to score quite a bit to keep up. I’m not sure they have that in them.
Not to mention, USC lost twice to the Utes last season, including the PAC-12 title game that took the Trojans out of the College Football Playoff. USC is going to be ready for this one at home.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.