NFL Week 7 kicks off with the Saints fresh off a loss in Houston taking on a hot Jaguars squad that just returned from London and continued to extend their winning streak. Let’s take a look at some betting angles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Saints ML (-115) — 2-units
I put this one out on Twitter on Monday morning, and we’ve seen this number go on a rollercoaster ride since. Shortly after, news surfaced that Lawrence may not play in this game, which bumped the line to NO -3. Since then, Lawrence has practiced with a knee brace, sending this number back down to about -120 on the ML.
Regardless of Lawrence’s status, I like the situation for the Saints here. New Orleans hasn’t been spectacular this season, sitting at 3-3 overall and 1-1 at home. The defense has led them, while the offense has really struggled at times. Their stock hasn’t been lower than now, coming off a defeat in Houston.
Meanwhile, the Jags are red-hot, not only winning and covering both games in London, but returning home to beat the Colts in a big game in the division this past Sunday. I have to believe this is the spot that all catches up to the Jags, particularly on a short week against a home team that’s hungry to turn things around.
It’s an unprecedented spot for Jacksonville, not only returning from the longest road trip to London in NFL history, but also immediately playing without a bye, and then turning around to go on the road for a Thursday game the next week.
Whether Lawrence plays or not, I think the Jags are going to be in some trouble offensively, going up against an elite defense in their own building.
The Saints have struggled moving the ball through the air this season, but this should actually be a spot that gets Derek Carr and company some confidence in the passing game. Jacksonville ranks 31st in pass defense through the first six weeks, so I’d expect some deep shots from New Orleans.
I trust the Saints fully on defense, but if the passing attack can get going this week, I’d expect the home team to pull this one out.
The prop board is a little murky for this one. Some props on the New Orleans side are still yet to surface (as I write this on Wednesday afternoon), and the Lawrence situation will mean a lot of props come out later. If I add any of those I will post here.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.