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Same Game Parlay (SGP): HOU Astros at TEX Rangers
Yordan Alvarez 1+ Total Bases
HOU Astros Over 3.5 Total Runs
Max Scherzer Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Leody Taveras Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Nick's analysis: The Rangers’ No. 9 hitter is batting .348 with three extra-base hits, three RBIs and five runs scored this postseason. He’s also gone over this number five times over his last 10 and four times in seven postseason games.
Taveras is 5-for-16 (.313) with two extra-base hits in his career against Christian Javier. That also makes either his total bases prop or hits prop good value plays since both are set a 0.5 with -169 odds, but the over on his Hits+Runs+RBIs line feels just as likely to come through despite the odds difference.
Max Scherzer Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Nick’s analysis: Houston’s lineup had one of the lowest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching this season (20.5%). Yet, Nathan Eovaldi just carved the ‘Stros up for nine over six frames in Game 2 of the ALCS. We’ve also seen Sonny Gray log six over four frames and Pablo Lopez get seven over seven vs. Houston this postseason.
Scherzer has been on the shelf since mid-September, but the right-hander worked his way up to 69 pitches against hitters in his last workout. If he’s feeling good, that’s enough of a leash for the right-hander to get in five frames on a good day. But these other right-handed pitchers have proved he doesn’t even need to last that long to go over this mark.
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