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NFL Betting Systems for Week 6: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for Week 6 of the NFL season.

NFL: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

With this article, I’m highlighting the new Systems feature available in DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check out the feature for yourself to find appealing systems in play this week!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

System: Under on total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite

This one may seem a bit familiar. That’s because it was highlighted in Week 5 as one of the best systems to roll with. Not only did my preferred play, the under in KC-MIN, hit, but so did two of the other three Sunday games.

On top of that, the Raiders closed as favorites vs. Green Bay, bringing this system’s record to 4-1 in Week 5 following a 30-point finish on Monday. With that strong showing for the system, the under when an AFC team is non-conference favorite is now 64-30-1 (67.4%).

On Sunday, a few teams from Week 5 will find themselves in the same setting. This system applies to the following games on Sunday’s Week 6 slate:

  • MIA vs. CAR
  • CIN vs. SEA
  • BUF vs. NYG

Since 2021, the Bengals are one of three AFC teams that have seen the over hit 50% of the time or more in this system (the Chargers and Broncos being the other two). Following Week 5’s under, Miami has seen the under hit in 4 of 6 opportunities in this system during the same time frame, while Buffalo has seen it hit in 6 of 10 games.

As for their opponents, the under is 8-1 when the Giants are on the other side of this system and 4-1 when Seattle is in the same spot. Carolina has the “best” record toward the over of this NFC bunch, with the only under being 3-2 in this setting.

All are playable, but NYG-BUF gets the nod for a few reasons:

  • NYG-BUF is in a prime-time spot. Since 2021, the under is 14-2 in night games when an AFC team is playing as a non-conference favorite.
  • The under is 3-0 when Buffalo is playing as a non-conference favorite at night.
  • While the Bills aren’t readjusting to the time zone shift after visiting London like Jacksonville, they’ve done some serious travel recently for that game. Far from a deciding factor, but a helpful immeasurable after looking at all the other factors.

System: Under in AFC Divisional games

Back in Week 1, I highlighted all unders in divisional games as part of a system specific to the time of year. The play went 6-2, and it was an even split between the AFC and NFC divisional games at 3-1 apiece.

This system applied to DEN-KC and the under hit. But on Sunday, there’s only one game this play applies to:

  • IND @ JAX

Following Thursday’s low-scoring affair, the under is 10-6 when AFC divisional teams square off. However, it’s worth noting the Jaguars and Colts are a combined 4-1 to the over when facing divisional opponents (something to keep in mind when this system pops up as the season progresses).

Still, this has been a very strong system since 2021 at 66-48-1 (57.4%). Factor that in with the Colts starting their backup QB and the Jaguars having to make the time-zone adjustment — which can have a much greater impact than the Buffalo travel note mentioned above — and this system is in position to come through again on Sunday.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.