All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
System: Under on total when an AFC team is a non-conference favorite
This one may seem a bit familiar. That’s because it was highlighted in Week 5 as one of the best systems to roll with. Not only did my preferred play, the under in KC-MIN, hit, but so did two of the other three Sunday games.
On top of that, the Raiders closed as favorites vs. Green Bay, bringing this system’s record to 4-1 in Week 5 following a 30-point finish on Monday. With that strong showing for the system, the under when an AFC team is non-conference favorite is now 64-30-1 (67.4%).
On Sunday, a few teams from Week 5 will find themselves in the same setting. This system applies to the following games on Sunday’s Week 6 slate:
- MIA vs. CAR
- CIN vs. SEA
- BUF vs. NYG
Since 2021, the Bengals are one of three AFC teams that have seen the over hit 50% of the time or more in this system (the Chargers and Broncos being the other two). Following Week 5’s under, Miami has seen the under hit in 4 of 6 opportunities in this system during the same time frame, while Buffalo has seen it hit in 6 of 10 games.
As for their opponents, the under is 8-1 when the Giants are on the other side of this system and 4-1 when Seattle is in the same spot. Carolina has the “best” record toward the over of this NFC bunch, with the only under being 3-2 in this setting.
All are playable, but NYG-BUF gets the nod for a few reasons:
- NYG-BUF is in a prime-time spot. Since 2021, the under is 14-2 in night games when an AFC team is playing as a non-conference favorite.
- The under is 3-0 when Buffalo is playing as a non-conference favorite at night.
- While the Bills aren’t readjusting to the time zone shift after visiting London like Jacksonville, they’ve done some serious travel recently for that game. Far from a deciding factor, but a helpful immeasurable after looking at all the other factors.
System: Under in AFC Divisional games
Back in Week 1, I highlighted all unders in divisional games as part of a system specific to the time of year. The play went 6-2, and it was an even split between the AFC and NFC divisional games at 3-1 apiece.
This system applied to DEN-KC and the under hit. But on Sunday, there’s only one game this play applies to:
- IND @ JAX
Following Thursday’s low-scoring affair, the under is 10-6 when AFC divisional teams square off. However, it’s worth noting the Jaguars and Colts are a combined 4-1 to the over when facing divisional opponents (something to keep in mind when this system pops up as the season progresses).
Still, this has been a very strong system since 2021 at 66-48-1 (57.4%). Factor that in with the Colts starting their backup QB and the Jaguars having to make the time-zone adjustment — which can have a much greater impact than the Buffalo travel note mentioned above — and this system is in position to come through again on Sunday.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.