Let’s breakdown this awesome college football Week 7 card with some of my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 7 is 30-23-1 (+6.33-units).
Oregon at Washington (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Washington -2.5 (-120) — 2-units
Massive game here, not just in the PAC-12, but in terms of College Football Playoff hopes. The Huskies snuck out an impressive 37-34 road win in this matchup last year, and this year I expect them to defend home field.
Both of these teams are off to tremendous starts, but we haven’t learned too much about them from the competition they’ve played. Oregon’s trip to Texas Tech is probably the toughest game that either of these two teams have played on their schedule, otherwise throttling the competition. While the Ducks squeaked out an insane cover in that game on a defensive touchdown, it was actually the Red Raiders driving with a chance to win that game. Oregon was down double-digits earlier in that game, struggling at times in the rowdy road atmosphere.
This should be an even more difficult place to play on Saturday afternoon, with the Husky fans going bonkers in this one. I trust Michael Penix Jr. the most of either of the quarterbacks, and I trust the Washington offense at home more than Oregon’s on the road. The Ducks will certainly show more resistance on defense than Washington has seen so far this season, but I don’t expect it to be enough.
Florida at South Carolina (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
South Carolina ML (-130) — 1.5-units
This reminds me to a degree of when we played Kentucky ML when the Wildcats hosted Florida, which turned into a landslide victory for the home team. Hopefully we can replicate those results in this spot.
The Gators just aren’t the same team when they leave the Swamp. Very good at home, particularly in the Tennessee win, but have lost their two road games at Utah and Kentucky by a combined 32 points.
Meanwhile, South Carolina has been very tested this season. The Gamecocks have already played North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee — all away from home. They were also reasonably competitive throughout those games, until around the fourth quarter. Now in their first big home game of the season, look for the Gamecocks to play their most complete game — particularly coming off a bye. South Carolina got stomped down at the Swamp last year, setting up a nice revenge spot.
Missouri at Kentucky (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
Kentucky ML (-135) — 1.5-units
Speaking of Kentucky, I’ll back them at home again as a short favorite. Missouri has had an interesting season, but I’m not sure the Tigers have actually shown us anything too impressive.
Mizzou was at home last week and gave LSU a run for its money, but ultimately came up short. Their signature win was also at home, coming over a Kansas State team that was overrated at the time. In fact, the Tigers have only gone on the road once this season, and while they got the win, it was over a Vanderbilt school that’s thought of as a doormat in the SEC.
The Wildcats have been solid at home, highlighted by the dominant win over the Gators. They should be thrilled to return home this week after going on the road to get their butts kicked by Georgia in a game that they become a very public underdog. But now the spot sets up nicely for Kentucky, especially considering we haven’t seen Missouri in any type of hostile road sittuation yet.
USC at Notre Dame (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
ND ML (-135) — 2-units
I assumed I’d be on USC when this game arrived for the majority of the season, but this one sets up nicely for the Irish. I’ll go through the full analysis on this game below, but there’s one major piece of this handicap that I’m putting the majority of the weight on — the Trojans are abysmal on defense.
USC started the season with three layups at home, scoring 56+ points in each win over San Jose State, Nevada and Stanford. Then the going got a little tougher. In consecutive road games, USC allowed 28 points to Arizona State and 41 to Colorado, not even coming close to covering either game. Last week the Trojans nearly lost to Arizona at home as massive favorites, crawling to the finish line of a 43-41 victory in multiple overtimes.
Offensively I have nothing bad to say about Caleb Williams and company. They are elite. That said, this will be by far the toughest defense they’ve faced. Not to mention, it comes on the road on a Saturday night with some chilly weather expected, more importantly with some rain and wind expected.
What I’m most confident in is Notre Dame’s ability to score — and it’s because I have zero faith in the USC defense. The Irish have been on a wild ride recently. They should’ve beat Ohio State at home, but lost. Then should’ve lost on the road to Duke the next week, but won. They followed it up with a complete flat spot at Louisville last week, easily losing that one.
This is a nice spot to hit the re-set button for ND. Back at home, looking to bounce-back from last week, and make up that loss to the Buckeyes to this home crowd.
UCLA at Oregon State (Saturday 8:00 pm ET)
Oregon State -3.5 (-110) — 2-units
Was hoping we’d get this spot set up to back the Beavers at home, and we do. UCLA was a sharp favorite at home over a very good Washington State squad on Saturday, and came through with the win and cover.
Now the Bruins are fresh off a big win, and jump into the National Rankings. That said, Oregon State has really been taking care of business in every scenario this season, outside of a really tough road game at Wazzu.
Corvallis is one of the toughest places to play on the road, which gave us a great spot to bet this team on a Friday night a couple of weeks ago against Utah — a game Oregon State won 21-7. UCLA’s only tough road test came earlier in the season at Utah, and the Bruins only managed seven points.
Coming off their biggest win of the year, I expect UCLA to run into a buzzsaw here on Saturday night. The Beavers just continue to get the job done this season, particularly at home. I expect elite defense from the Beavs, and enough big plays on offense to get this win with some margin.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.