We’re onto Week 18 of the NFL season, which typically brings us some unique situations. The last game of the regular season often brings us a lot of prop betting based on player incentives — “Player X” needs a certain amount of yards to claim a big bonus, etc. I’ll do my best to touch on those later in the week, but we do have some players in position to set some notable records.
Justin Fields would’ve needed 63 rushing yards this week to set the single season rushing record by a quarterback. I was ready to bet the over on his rushing prop, but the Bears wound up announcing Fields would sit with an injury. However, my favorite spot to target a record-breaker on this card is Patrick Mahomes. Here’s how I’m backing him on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s get the record part out of the way first — Mahomes enters Saturday’s game with a ridiculous 5,048 passing yards. He’s 430 yards short of Peyton Manning’s record, when he passed for 5,477 back in 2013. While the Chiefs are in a must-win situation when it comes to potentially getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they are obviously aware of Mahomes’ chance to make history.
What I like here is that both of these things work together. I’m not saying Kansas City will go too far out of its way to help Mahomes achieve the record, but passing the ball against the Raiders has been how you beat them — Vegas ranks 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed.
While the 320.5 number is high, I expect it to rise. Mahomes is already averaging 315.5 passing yards per game this season, and has passed for 320 or more yards 10 times (nine of them since Week 6). Historically, Mahomes has played well against the Raiders, passing for 340 or more yards in four of his last seven.
I think the matchup gives Mahomes a high floor to start with, and then once the record is in sight, expect the Chiefs to go after it. Whether he gets it or not, I like Mahomes to go over 320 in the air.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.