Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Bills-Bengals.
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
Both of these teams have something to play for, as much as they’ve already punched their playoff ticket. Whoever loses is going to be in an interesting predicament in Week 18, but only one could still lose the MNF matchup and be fully in control of their destiny — the Bengals. That’s not exactly reason for Cincinnati to take it easy, but the Bills need this one.
Now, the Bengals have been the best team against the spread this season. The Bills are 7-7-1 ATS and 4-3-1 ATS as road favorites. Rather than get cute with this ever-fluctuating spread, I prefer laying a little juice and playing this one straight-up at a still-reasonable price. When favored ATS on the road, Buffalo is 6-2 straight-up.
When it comes to the market’s behavior, sharps are backing the Bills on the moneyline and ATS. Despite only 39% of the moneyline bets going to the Bills as of writing, those plays make up 51% of the handle for the moneyline bets for Week 17’s MNF contest.
Boyd has not been kind to over bettors this season, allowing the under to hit on his receiving prop in 10 of Cincy’s 15 games. That puts positive regression in play at this reasonable number — one he’s gone over eight times in 15 contests.
Tee Higgins (69.5) and Ja”Marr Chase (82.5) also have reasonable numbers, respective to their typical production and Cincy’s opponent. Still, Boyd feels safer than Higgins, with the latter recently going off vs. New England despite dealing with hamstring issues off and on. Cincy’s No. 3 receiver also feels safer than Chase after the latter was held under this number in each of his last two games.
The reason I’m not considering the under for any of these three: Buffalo allows opposing receivers to put up serious numbers. Of course, Boyd doesn’t need to put up big-time numbers. But what matters when looking at the work of opposing receivers vs. the Bills while evaluating this play is the production of entire receiving corps game-to-game. Multiple wide receivers on the same team have gone over this number vs. Buffalo eight times. That number was very nearly 11, with three receivers finishing within two yards of this over when another teammate went over this number vs. the Bills.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.