Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s NBA slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
No need to overthink this one. The two rank among the five teams who’ve seen the over his most this season. The over has hit more often in games played at Detroit than anywhere else, going 14-5-1 at Little Caesars Arena. The over is also 15-5-1 in Pelicans road games, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
In looking at the market’s behavior, this is public play. However, the sharps are in on this number, too. The over has received 61% of the bets and 75% of the handle.
Yet another public play that sharps are in on. The Knicks have received 72% of the ATS bets and 85% of the handle.
Makes sense when you consider the Knicks cover on the road more often than anyone else. Now, they’ve been underdogs in most of their games away from MSG. But, the Knicks have covered in four of the five games they’ve been road favorites.
As for the Wizards, they’re 5-3 ATS as home underdogs but 8-10 ATS at home overall. I expect the latter trend to maintain Friday with Bradley Beal out of the mix, Kristaps Porzingis banged up and Julius Randle rolling.
Speaking of Randle and Porzingis, here’s another way to attack this game.
Porzingis is dealing with a rib issue, and Daniel Gafford’s ankle is bothering him. Even if both can play, having them hobbled could be huge for Randle, who honestly doesn’t need that extra help to get over this number.
While he’s only gone over this number 16 times in 41 games, the over on his point prop is 23-19. More importantly, the over is 12-8 in road games. When the Knicks are road favorites, the over on Randle’s points prop is 4-1, and it’s 14-5 against teams under .500.
This is particularly interesting because of the market’s behavior and the spread’s movement.
DeMar DeRozan is doubtful vs. OKC, but the spread didn’t dip down to five points until hours after the news came out. Then it dipped to 4.5 overnight.
While the movement following DeRozan news makes sense, the delay is odd — especially since the sharp money has been on the Bulls throughout and the percentage of bets split didn’t start to lean heavily in one direction until the spread was 4.5. Seems odd that the Thunder are starting to get more bets and a better percentage of the handle after points were taken away from them.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.