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MLB Picks for September 7: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 7.

Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Diamondbacks Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Total over 7 -120
Nick Pivetta over 2.5 earned runs +110

The Rays almost went over this number on their own against Nick Pivetta earlier in the season. When they saw him on August 28, they posted a five-spot against him in five innings. He’s given up three-plus runs in 13 of his 27 starts, but seven of those outings have come in his last 11. And not only have the Rays hit Pivetta well this season, they’ve been seeing all right-handed well of late, posting the seventh-best ISO against righties since mid-August.

As for Wednesday’s total, the over on this number is 20-4-3 in Pivetta starts this year. While the over on this total hasn’t hit much in Jeffrey Springs’ starts this year, the Red Sox have gotten to him for eight runs over 12 innings in his two starts.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Phillies -1.5 +130

Although his season-long numbers aren’t appealing, Bailey “Never” Falter has given the Phillies a good chance at a win in most of his 2022 starts. Thus, Philadelphia is 8-2 in his starts. More importantly, the Phillies have won seven of those games by two-plus runs. They’re also one of the best teams at covering after a win, rocking a 41-32 record on the run line in those contests.

The Marlins, on the other hand, are 38-40 on the run line after a loss. Both teams haven’t produced much power against left-handed pitching of late, but the Phillies are at least making a lot of quality contact. Miami only has a 28.5% hard-contact rate and 15.5% line-drive rate against lefties since mid-August.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

Reds +125

Although he wasn’t able to make it through the fifth inning last time out, Mike Minor still did relatively well against a Cardinals lineup that’s smoked left-handed pitching all season. The Cubs do have one of the higher season-long ISOs (.163) against left-handed pitching in 2022, but that number has dipped down to .100 since the deadline.

While Javier Assad has been good in his first two MLB starts, that type of production from the offense isn’t going to get it done in an outing where Chicago’s bullpen will have to handle substantial work. Assad hasn’t given up a run in a start yet, but he only logged nine innings between those two outings. Chicago’s relievers have the highest bullpen FIP (5.53) and fourth-highest bullpen ERA (5.15) since the deadline. Conversely, Cincinnati relievers have a 3.66 bullpen ERA and 3.71 bullpen FIP since the deadline — even after they gave up five runs Tuesday following Justin Dunn’s rough start.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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