VSiN recently put out their NHL Betting Guide for the 2022 season, and it stands out as an absolute must read for anyone looking to get themselves prepped for NHL betting in the 2022-23 season.
The guide provides a serious overview of some of the most important stats related to hockey betting, works as a good refresher for experienced bettors and is an excellent guide to those new to betting hockey. It also provides a hockey bettors with some excellent tips on how to approach betting, in general, and actionable information like schedule highlights — with a focus on teams playing on little rest — and value picks in the futures market (awards).
Award Best Bets
Alex DeBrincat +2500— Rocket Richard Trophy (Most goals scored)
This is my favorite futures bet the guide highlights. The Rocket Richard trophy has been Auston Matthews’ personal wheelhouse of late, with the Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl being the only other player over the past two years to have challenged him from an upside perspective.
As a big physical center, injury issues have plagued Matthews throughout his career — to the point where the last time he managed to play over 75 games in a season was his rookie year in 2016-17. Even a slight drop off in goal-scoring rate makes him vulnerable to be overtaken in 2022-23 as the top goal scorer, and at +190 to win, he makes for an easy fade in the betting market.
Matthews’ dominance has also created a nice opportunity to jump on a player at juicy odds like DeBrincat, who the guide notes managed 32 goals in 52 games in 2020-21 (essentially a 50-goal pace). The 24-year-old has showcased great scoring upside to this point in his career and should be a centerpiece of the new Senators offense, which includes playmakers like Claude Giroux and Tim Stutzle. The guide also likes David Pastrnak (a former winner of this award), but the bigger odds and youthfulness of DeBrincat make him more the more appealing target.
As the betting guide notes, no defenseman has managed to crack the 100-point barrier in the regular season since 1991-92, but there’s a real chance Makar could push for that milestone this year. He managed 29 points in 20 playoff games, which would put him on track for 118 points through 82-games. The bottom line for the Hart Trophy is that you will need a player who is capable of doing something amazing to truly challenge either Matthews or Connor McDavid — the two clear favorites. Makar has yet to play 80-plus games in a season, but if he accomplishes the feat and manages to reach the historic 100-point barrier, there’s every chance he’ll get serious consideration.
The public is also very into Makar after he dominated in the playoffs, and voters are ultimately humans with very real biases. I love the fact you can get Makar at bigger odds than his teammate Nathan MacKinnon, as well, who is a great player in his own right but hasn’t played more than 70 games in a season since 2018-19 — and is at a disadvantage for this award given he plays the same position as Matthews and McDavid. The guide is correct in highlighting Makar as good value for this one.
Division Winner Probabilities
The Betting Guide gives out projections and probabilities for where each team will finish on a division-by-division basis. It also provides some great stats and potential best bets on a team-by-team basis. Below, I’ve highlighted two of the teams with the largest differential between the guide’s projections and actual odds offered on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Guide Projection - Carolina to win division 56.9% (-132)
The guide has the Hurricanes as overwhelming favorites in the Metropolitan Division this year, and to be honest, it makes a lot of sense. The bottom four teams are incredibly weak, with Washington also having an aging lineup and the potential for more regression in 2022-23. The Carolina lineup is incredible deep once again and will have the addition of Max Pacioretty to look forward to later in the season once he recovers from an Achilles injury.
Betting Guide Projection - Calgary to win division 54.9% (-121)
There is some reason to be cautious with the Flames, as they are attempting to do a massive overhaul of their top-end talent on the fly in 2022-23. That said, this team was dominate in the regular season, last year ranking second in overall goal differential at +85, and they play in a very weak division. It’s hard to project either the Kings or Golden Knights as true challengers this season, so Calgary may only have the Edmonton Oilers to worry about — a team whose goaltending issues will rest on the talented but inconsistent Jack Campbell. Taking Calgary at these odds while the public worries about the roster changes is likely a solid move.
2022-2023 Schedule — with Tired Spots Highlighted
This is such a useful guide for betting. It highlights spots where teams will be playing on limited rest. As the guide notes, the hockey season is over 80 games, and teams playing on limited rest often see their win rates plummet. There’s been lots of research done on this, but overall, teams playing on the tail end of back-to-backs have seen their win rates plummet by about five percent in the second half of those two game sets.
Rookies to watch
Even if you’re a hardcore hockey fan, it can be hard to keep track of all the rookies coming into the league. The guide gives a great overview of the top rookies coming into the league for 2022-23 and provides the current state of the betting market in the Rookie of the Year category, as well. It’s a great primer and will allow you to note which players to keep an eye on the season progresses for the Calder trophy.
Hockey 101 stats
Advanced stats in hockey have come a long way over the past decade. The guide not only gives a good overview of the most referenced hockey stats — like Corsi, expected goal rate and WAR (wins above replacement) — but it also provides a guide on how you can potentially use them to your benefit for betting.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.