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MLB Picks for September 30: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s MLB betting card.

Toronto Blue Jays v Pittsburgh Pirates Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images

Oh, how I debated whether to bet Rays moneyline or Rays first five on Thursday morning. I ended up going with the moneyline, Tampa blew a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth, and now we’ve sitting here with a .500 record on last night’s article plays. Least the one at plus-money hit, right? ...Right?!

We’re 75-63 for the season. Here’s a fresh batch of MLB bets for Friday’s slate.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres

Padres -1.5 (+100)

The Padres really need to win this game, and the White Sox do not. Obviously I’ll be digging a little deeper than that with my analysis, but considering how lethargic Chicago’s looked since the Guardians essentially ended their season in extra innings last week — the team is 1-8 in its past nine contests — I might not have to say much more. I mean, the White Sox rank dead-last in baseball the past 14 days in wOBA (.248) and wRC+ (58). Tim Anderson and Luis Robert have been ruled out for the last two series, while Yoan Moncada is banged up. This is a roster that just wants to go home.

Yu Darvish also wants to go home, but for an entirely different reason. The veteran has been a stud at Petco Park in 2022, maintaining a 2.45 ERA in its comfy confines this season. Honestly, Darvish has looked like the prime version of himself wherever he’s taken the mound in September, as he owns a sterling 1.36 ERA and a 31.1% strikeout rate so far in the month. I’d anticipate Darvish continuing his recent success against Chicago’s scuffling lineup, while the Padres should have little issue scoring runs off Davis Martin, who’s produced an underwhelming 4.14 ERA as a starter in seven appearances.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Johan Oviedo Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Oviedo’s made six starts this season, five with the Pirates and one with the Cardinals. In five of those six outings, the 24-year-old has collected at least four strikeouts, with the one exception being his appearance on September 7 against the Mets. On that day, Oviedo completely lost the strike zone, walking five opponents in just 1.2 innings of work. He only ended up facing 11 opposing hitters, which made hitting this prop a bit of an issue.

My point? Oviedo has really good raw stuff. If he’s able to toss five innings on Friday, I don’t think he’ll have much issue reaching four strikeouts. Heck, in 20.1 innings this September, the right-hander has 23 strikeouts to go along with a 3.05 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. You don’t have to squint too hard to see the outline of a successful pitcher. Oviedo’s average fastball velocity this season is 95.9 mph, with the right-hander consistently touching 97 and 98 on the radar gun. His slider, which he’s used in 40.9% of counts in 2022, has a whiff rate of 36.6%. Maybe with that particular mix Oviedo’s future is in the backend of a bullpen, yet on Friday night, he’s out for revenge against the organization that traded him two months ago.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.