After initially not liking much, the NFL Week 4 board is slowly growing on me. Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Almost all of my football futures and week-to-week plays will be posted in article form, but as always follow along on Twitter, as some will just be posted here — @julianedlow.
NYG -2.5 (-110) — 1-unit
This was the first play I posted this week, and I spot I’ve had circled since before the season. I played it at 2.5 and like it to -3, laying a short number at home with the Giants here.
The G-Men come off a tough MNF loss at home in the division, while the 2-1 Bears come in riding high off another win. The Giants are a very aggressive team when it comes to the blitz, and the Bears have absolutely dreadful pass protection. Justin Fields hasn’t done much to encourage us that that pass rush won’t force him into poor decisions.
Meanwhile, the Giants should get things going on the ground, and Daniel Jones should have a far cleaner pocket than he did against Dallas.
DAL -3 (-120) — 1-unit
Speaking of the Cowboys, I like this spot to bet them as home against a quarterback that took nine sacks last week. I grabbed them during the week at -3, even with a bit of juice, as it’s been bouncing around to 3.5.
I don’t believe in this Washington team, and Carson Wentz has almost let the pressure come to him. Insert a Dallas pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks, and I’m expecting a ton of pressure here.
As for the offense, Cooper Rush is 3-0 SU/ATS as a starting QB in his career. While he’ll fall flat at some point, I don’t think this is it. He’s been really good at getting the ball out and delivering it to his receivers, who you could argue have made more mistakes then he has.
OVER 51 (-110) — 1-unit
Not really sure what’s going on with this total, but it keeps dropping, and I’m going the other way on it. Maybe it has to do with the weather on the east coast this weekend, but these two offenses against these two defenses should result in some serious points.
Both secondaries are beyond banged up, relying mostly on backups, and the Buffalo front-seven also has some key injuries. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are two of the frontrunners for the MVP award, playing out of their minds.
Baltimore has put up 38 and 37 points in each of the last two weeks respectively. Buffalo went through a five-quarter period in Weeks 1 and 2 where it scored 62 points. Last week in Miami felt like a major fluke, putting up a ton of yardage but landing on 19 points.
Bounce-back spot here for the Bills against a soft defense, while the Ravens should keep producing as well. Both teams into the 30’s wouldn’t shock anyone here.
TB ML (-105) — 1-unit
As I write this up, Tampa Bay is still a slight underdog in this game, which allows me to use this trend — Tom Brady is 10-0 as an underdog the last 10 times he’s been priced a dog after a loss.
Despite missing the best of the number here, I like how things are falling into place for Tampa to win this game. The offense hasn’t looked great so far, but Mike Evans will be back, and it feels like we should see Julio Jones back on the field. That should mean a lot for the Bucs at home against this KC defense.
On the Chiefs side of this game, they really struggled in Indianapolis last week, and it looks like they aren’t on the same page. That’s ok against bad teams, but won’t hold up on the second week of consecutive road games against good teams. Tampa’s defense is legit, and should cause problems for Patrick Mahomes and company.
Tampa’s offense should take a big step forward and win this game, which it will have home field for.
CIN/NMSU ML Parlay (-119) — 1.5-units
I wrote up this game in my TNF Best Bets article — which you can read here.
With the spread moving around a bit and not coming down to the key number of -3, I put this play out on Twitter.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.