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MLB Picks for September 28: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 28.

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Aaron Nola over 7.5 strikeouts -105

This is a number Nola has gone over in 16 of his 30 starts this season. Of course, that’s not a reassuring success rate. But when you zoom in on some of the splits within this stat, things become more favorable for the over.

In his 14 road starts this season, Nola has punched out eight-plus nine times. Since the All-Star break, the Philly right-hander has made 11 starts. He’s punched out at least eight in 11 of those outings.

Also, Nola has a favorable matchup vs. the Cubs. This month, they’ve posted a 26.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. That’s a bit of an inflation from their season-long number (23.7%), but not as much of a deviation from their overall post-All-Star Game strikeout rate (24.4%).

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Brewers -155

The Cardinals took care of business on Tuesday, securing the NL Central title. With that, they’re cemented as the No. 3 seed in the NL. Since they can’t slide up to the No. 2 spot, never mind top one, they have nothing to do but get prepared for postseason play.

With that being the case, we likely won’t see the normal, forceful St. Louis lineup we typically do. Even if we do at the start of Wednesday’s game, that doesn’t mean the Cardinals’ lineup will look the same by the end of the game. Plus, the Cardinals haven’t exactly been great against right-handed pitching this month (.157 ISO).

That all plays into Brandon Woodruff’s hand. He’s dealt since the Diamondbacks took it to him at the start of September, carving the Yankees and navigating Coors Field in the process.

The juice is only going to get worse here. Taking the Brewers on the run line at +145 is a worthwhile play, too — especially if the Cardinals don’t trot out their big dogs.

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies

Joc Pederson over 1.5 total bases +140

Pederson popped off Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean he can’t blow past this number again Wednesday. Before his multi-extra-base-hit performance Tuesday, Pederson was hitting .286 with two home runs and a double in his 42 at-bats against right-handed pitching this month. While his September BABIP against righties (.417) was already a bit bloated before his big game, he’s making a lot of quality contact. Prior to Tuesday, he only had a 24% ground-ball rate against righties in September, whereas his hard-contact rate against them during that span stood at 34.6%.

While Jose Urena has been inducing a lot of ground balls against righties across his last five starts away from Coors, they’ve also put together a 23.3% line-drive against him. Also, he has a gross 4.02 FIP against them during that span, along with a measly 10.7% strikeout rate.

To top it all off, Pederson has good history with Urena — even though they haven’t squared off an overwhelming amount. Sixteen plate appearances is a small sample size, but nine hits — including one homer, one triple and one double — across such few opportunities is noteworthy.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.