We’ve nearly made it. The final day of the regular season is Wednesday, Oct. 5, so we have roughly nine days before the start of the playoffs. All 30 teams with be in action on Tuesday, and we have a 15-game slate starting at 6:10 p.m. ET.
The Pick: Marlins ML (+180)
The Mets are currently involved in the most high-stakes division race in the league. They hold just a 1.0-game lead over the Braves, and whoever wins the NL East will almost assuredly win the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. That means a first-round bye, while the loser will have to compete in the Wild Card round. Perhaps more importantly, it would set up a Divisional round matchup vs. the Dodgers, who have been the best team in baseball.
With that in mind, the pressure is on the Mets to keep winning ball games. They’ll face a tough matchup Tuesday in the form of Jorge Lopez. Lopez has cooled down a bit after a torrid start to the year, but he still owns a respectable 3.88 ERA across 30 starts.
The Mets will have a nearly identical pitcher on the mound in Carlos Carrasco. He’s been a bit better in terms of ERA and K/9, but his advanced metrics are all very similar.
The Mets have a clear edge from an offensive standpoint, but overall, this matchup seems priced way out of proportion. As much as it pains me, I have to grab the Marlins at this price tag.
The Pick: Orioles ML (+105)
What do the Orioles have to do to get some respect? All they do is win ball games for bettors, and they’ve been easily the most profitable team in 2022. The Orioles have posted a +17.2% return on investment on the moneyline this season, and no other team is above even +8.5%.
They won as underdogs against the Red Sox on Monday, and they’re back in the same spot on Tuesday. Their matchup vs. Michael Wacha is tough on paper, but Wacha has easily outperformed his peripherals this season. His 2.70 ERA is nearly two full runs better than his 4.31 xERA, and he’s thrived thanks to some good luck on balls in play. Opposing batters have managed just a .253 BABIP, even though Wacha had a mark of at least .312 in each of the three previous years.
The Orioles have been extremely good to us all year, and I see no reason to stop riding them against a Red Sox team that cannot wait for the season to be over.
The Pick: Under 8.0 runs (-120)
This matchup is all about pitching. The Dodgers will turn to Tyler Anderson, who has been one of the biggest surprises of the year. He’s been a mediocre pitcher for most of his career, but he seems to have gotten a new lease on life in Los Angeles. He’s pitched to a 2.52 ERA across 167 2/3 innings, and his 3.10 xERA suggests his production hasn’t been all that fluky. He should be able to limit the damage against a Padres squad that is basically league-average against southpaws.
On the other side, Blake Snell will make the start for the Padres. Snell got off to a rough start this season, but he’s been dominant since the All-Star break. He’s pitched to a 2.42 ERA over his last 67 innings, and he’s averaged a 12.49 K/9. Those are big boy numbers.
Snell will be tested by the Dodgers, who have been the best offensive team in baseball. That said, they haven’t been quite as potent against southpaws as they have been against traditional pitchers. They’re still very good, but they rank sixth in wRC+ in that split as opposed to first. The Dodgers were able to get to Snell in their last meeting, but Snell racked up 12 strikeouts with just one earned run in his only other start vs. LA.
Ultimately, I think it’s reasonable to expect a low-scoring outcome.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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