MLB Picks for September 23: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

We had a good night on Thursday. Not only did we go 3-0 on article plays bringing our record to 72-61 for the season, but I also found time to go to the gym, because the one thing you don’t want to gamble with is your health!

[turns to camera and smiles]

That was weird.

Here’s three bets I like on Friday’s MLB slate.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Over 7.5 (-110)

While I can appreciate that Gerrit Cole being on the mound for the Yankees necessitates a somewhat modest total, this number seems way too low for a game between New York and Boston in the Bronx. I mean, Cole really hasn’t been all that amazing since the All-Star break, pitching to an underwhelming 4.04 ERA across 69.0 innings of work. Cole’s 3.57 FIP within the same span is slightly better, yet the knock on the right-hander all season long has been the home run ball. Cole enters play on Friday having surrendered an AL-high 29 opponent long balls in 2022, with the Red Sox responsible for a large part of the damage. In four starts against Boston, Cole’s been touched up for seven homers and a 5.48 ERA. Yikes.

This bet also comes with a contingency plan: Rich Hill. The 42-year-old hasn’t been anything special for some time now, yet the wheels have noticeably fallen off so far in September. Hill’s made four trips to the mound in the month and opponents have managed to slash .320/.393/.413 off the vintage lefty. Let’s also not forget that this Yankees lineup was designed in a lab to crush left-handed pitching. For 2022 as a whole, New York ranks first in ISO (.199) and fourth in wRC+ (120) within the split — and that was before the arrival of top prospect Oswald Peraza and the return of Harrison Bader from the IL. The Yankees might hit this over by themselves.

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

Carlos Rodon Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Not to sound overly confident in this one, but I truly feel the only way this doesn’t hit is if Rodon isn’t fully healed from the blister issue that cut his last start short. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that despite exiting that outing on September 14 after five innings and just 71 pitches, Rodon still cleared this prop with eight strikeouts. That’s the level of swing-and-miss we’re dealing with here.

Not only has Rodon racked up at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six appearances, but he enters Friday sporting an eye-popping 36.4% strikeout rate across his last nine starts. It’s a span of time where the left-hander has maintained a 2.09 ERA and a 1.97 FIP. Barring any setbacks, he should be able to work deep into tonight’s contest, opposed by a familiar Diamondbacks squad. Rodon has registered a combined 21 strikeouts in his last two outings against his NL West rival, which has as much to do with Arizona’s roster construct as it does the southpaw’s raw talent. The Diamondbacks employ several LHBs and are among the league leaders in left-on-left plate appearances in 2022. As you could’ve probably guessed, Rodon’s completely annihilated left-handed bats this season.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Team Total: Rays Over 3.5 Runs (-130)

The thing about Toronto’s rotation is that there’s really only four starters: Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling and Jose Berrios. While doubleheaders and a lack of off-days have certainly contributed to the issue, the Jays have recently been filling this void with full-on bullpen efforts, which as you might imagine, has completely exhausted the team’s relievers. At least, that’s what a 5.37 bullpen ERA from the last two weeks suggests. Knowing all this, you can now see why Toronto has decided to turn to Mitch White on Friday. Yet, it’s not like the former Dodger has been all that great, either.

In White’s past four appearances he’s been absolutely tattooed. Over 18.0 innings of work, the right-hander has surrendered 26 hits and 21 earned runs. Opponents have combined for a .395 OBP and a .545 slugging percentage within this span of time. Gross. The Rays own a 111 wRC+ when playing at the Trop in 2022 and are coming off a 10-run effort in Thursday’s victory. They got a look at White last week in Toronto and they should be at full strength with Yandy Diaz expected back in the lineup this evening. I can’t see how this all doesn’t translate into some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

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