We’ve had an insane first couple of weeks of games in the NFL. Now we get what’s expected to be a bit of a grinder on TNF in the AFC North. Let’s dive into some betting options on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Almost all of my football futures and week-to-week plays will be posted in article form, but as always follow along on Twitter, as some will just be posted here — @julianedlow.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

I’m not seeing much in this NFC North grinder, so I’ll probably be sitting it out from a betting standpoint. However, a couple of plays did jump out to me, so if I wind up playing anything small, it’d likely be one of these plays.

UNDER 38 (-110)

I don’t expect Mitch Trubisky versus Jacoby Brissett to be a very pretty game, and the total suggests that. If I were to play a side, I’d probably lean to the dog. Mike Tomlin has been terrific as an underdog, particularly in the division. Tomlin is an unreal 26-2 ATS as an underdog in the division, while Kevin Stefanski is somehow just 1-11 in division to begin his career.

That said, between the short week, the poor offenses, the division game, and even some tough weather, points will be at a premium. Per Action Network, Tomlin is 70-50-1 to the under on the road. Stefanski is 6-2 to the under when the total is 44 or less. And finally, and maybe most importantly, Trusbisky is 16-5 to the under when the total is set at 43 or less. This one should be sloppy.

Nick Chubb Rushing Attempts OVER 15.5 (-120)

Chubb carries kind of translates into game-script here, especially if the windy weather is taking away from the passing game. Regardless of who you like in the game, Chubb is in the backfield for a home favorite, and figures to factor in heavily.

Chubb handled 22 carries for 141 yards in Week 1, and then brought is back with a 17-87-3 line in Week 2. That’s 19.5 carries per game in the early going, so I’m not sure why the total is set four carries lower in this spot.

Damien Harris handled 15 carries against Pittsburgh in a close game in Week 2, but that was also with a semi-shared workload (Rhamondre Stevenson had nine carries). Back in Week 1, Joe Mixon was handed the ball 27 times — while the game went to overtime, that was also with Cincinnati playing from behind almost the entire game.

Over the last three seasons, Chubb has averaged just over 17 carries per game.

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