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MLB Picks for September 21: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 21.

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees

Pirates +235

Yes, it’s wild to think the Pirates could pull off a win vs. the Yankees. But there’s a simple rule at play in this game. Whenever Roansy Contreras is pitching for Pittsburgh, the Pirates need to be considered on the moneyline.

The right-hander comes into Wednesday’s contest rocking a 4.23 FIP, which indicates his 3.24 ERA is due to regress. However, he’s instead taken his game to another level over his last four starts. While taking on the Cardinals, Blue Jays and Phillies (as well as the Reds), he’s logged 20 1/3 innings and only been tagged for three runs. Also, he didn’t allow more than one run in any of those outings.

While the Yankees have crushed right-handed pitching this month, they’re also turning to Domingo German. The right-hander got bumped from the starting rotation recently ahead of Luis Severino’s expected return, but New York is calling upon him with Frankie Montas (shoulder) hitting the 15-day IL. German has been solid this year, but there’s a reason the Yankees are only 4-6 in his 2022 starts (not counting his one-inning start on September 11).

Also, the Pirates have been solid against righties throughout the month. They aren’t striking out much against them and rank among the top 15 in ISO against right-handed pitching throughout September.

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Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

Tigers +135

Similar to Contreras and Pittsburgh, Matt Manning gives the Tigers a chance every time he takes the mound. His nightmare performance vs. the Mariners at the end of August hurt some of his season-long numbers, but he has responded very well in September. Over 17 1/3 innings this month, he’s posted a 2.08 ERA and 2.59 FIP.

Baltimore’s .173 ISO against righties this month is still strong, as well as better than Detroit’s .144 ISO in the split, but the O’s are also turning to Jordan Lyles on Wednesday. The up-and-down right-hander had perhaps his best month-long stretch of 2022 in August, logging a 3.18 ERA and 3.82 FIP. But August is long gone now, and it’s clear Lyles knows that. The right-hander started the month with an eight-run outing and followed that up with a five-inning, four-run showing.

Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners

Athletics +1.5 +100

The A’s may have not won in James Kaprielian’s return from the injured list, but that was not the right-handers fault. He handled the ever-challenging Astros lineup well, giving up just two runs over six innings of work. But even before the injury, there was really only one bad outing that ballooned his second-half numbers. Moreover, he’s held the Mariners in check since they got the better of him back on May 24. In the ensuing three outings against Seattle, Kaprielian logged at least five outings and gave up two runs or fewer.

Robbie Ray has also done well against Oakland throughout the year, but he’s been struggling of late. He’s likely to bounce back at some point, but this A’s lineup has a solid .173 ISO against righties this month. Taking Oakland on the moneyline at +180 is a strong play in this one, but this has the making of a close contest, so the one-run cushion at even-money is my preferred option.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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