After featuring one MNF contest in Week 1, the NFL has two slated for Week 2. (Because why not?) Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Titans-Bills and Vikings-Eagles.
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
The Bills did a good job of hitting the over after wins throughout 2021, going 7-5 in that scenario. However, only four of the 10 games played in Buffalo last season saw the over come through. Additionally, the over was 1-2 when the Bills had a rest advantage last season.
As for the Titans, most of their overs last year came when the team they were facing had the same amount of rest. They never covered when they had a rest advantage last season, and the over was 2-3 in games where Tennessee had the rest disadvantage — the latter of which being the scenario they find themselves in on Monday. Also, the over was 5-7 in Tennessee’s non-division games last year.
With there being some crummy weather in Buffalo throughout the day, that plays to this one being a bit sloppier and low-scoring. Also, the Titans don’t pack the same punch they did in recent years.
Despite my last comment about the Titans, they are appealing as near-double-digit underdogs. Mike Vrabel still has personnel he can use to slow this game down and keep it in reach. Buffalo has an explosive offense, but the weather and Tennessee’s defense can force mistakes. Plus, the threat of Derrick Henry going off is always there — he went for 143 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Bills last season.
Also, the Bills were 0-2-1 ATS with a rest advantage last season and 5-6-1 ATS against non-division opponents. The Titans were 6-2 as road underdogs last season — 3-2 as road dogs. After a loss in 2021, they were 4-1 ATS.
Minnesota didn’t go off to the degree Philly did in Week 1, but they still put together a solid offensive showing against a quality defense. While the Eagles do have some tough corners in their secondary, the Lions were able to do some serious damage against them. The Vikings may present the Eagles with a tougher defensive opponent than Detroit, but Philly’s dynamic offense has much more explosiveness to it right now than the one Minnesota just faced.
Additionally, the Vikings hit the over in seven of their 11 games outside the NFC North last year. While the over only hit in six of Philly’s 12 games outside the division last season, the over hit in each of the three home games they were favored. In the five games the Vikings were road dogs last season, the over hit four times.
Lastly, 50-plus points were scored in five of the eight games played in Philly throughout 2021.
Going off the last note regarding the total: The Eagles lost four of the five home games in which 50-plus points were scored last season. And while they were 2-0-1 ATS as home favorites in 2021, their three home wins came against the Giants, Commanders and Saints. The Eagles made significant improvements in the offseason, but they still struggled to close things out vs. the Lions in Week 1.
The Vikings didn’t win most of the games in which 50-plus points were scored last year, but we obviously don’t need them to win in order to cover. Fifty or more points were scored in nine of their 2021 games. They won three of those games and lost two contests by two or fewer. And as much as a three-point loss wouldn’t help us here, they only lost by three in two of those other four games that featured 50-plus points.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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