Major League Baseball is officially in the home stretch. There are just a couple weeks of regular season action left, and there are nine games to choose from on Monday.
Brewers ML (-110)
As DraftKings’ resident Mets fan, it pains me to pick against the Mets, especially when they have Max Scherzer on the mound. He’s been outstanding this season, pitching to a 2.26 ERA, but he’s a bit of a question mark on Monday. He left his last start early with an oblique injury and has spent the past 15 days on the IL. He did throw a rehab start in Triple-A, but he lasted just 59 pitches.
With that in mind, how long will Scherzer last in this contest? Eighty pitches? Ninety? Even with the Mets locked in a tight pennant race, I doubt they’ll push the 38-year-old very hard in this spot. That could mean a few extra innings for the Mets’ bullpen, which has been shaky outside of closer Edwin Diaz.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are also locked in a playoff battle for the final Wild Card spot, and they’ll have arguably an even better pitcher on the mound in Corbin Burnes. He hasn’t been quite as dominant this year as he was in his Cy Young-winning 2021 campaign, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his past two starts, and his ability to go deep into games should give the Brewers an advantage in this spot.
Astros ML (+105)
The Astros and Rays will start a series on Monday, and both teams have had excellent seasons. The Astros have basically locked up the top spot in the American League, while the Rays are comfortably in the Wild Card. They still have an outside chance of catching the Yankees for the AL East crown, but that’s unlikely after dropping two of three games against them two weeks ago.
On paper, the Rays will have the pitching advantage in this contest with Drew Rasmussen on the mound. He’s pitched to a 2.77 ERA across 25 starts this season while striking out 8.10 batters per nine innings.
That said, his advanced metrics aren’t quite as favorable. He owns a 3.42 xERA, and he ranks in the 29th percentile for average exit velocity and the 36th percentile in hard-hit rate. Astros starter Luis Garcia has a far worse traditional ERA at 4.04, but his 3.52 xERA is pretty comparable to Rasmussen’s.
Offensively, the Astros are clearly the superior side. They rank fifth in wRC+ against right-handers this season, while the Rays rank 11th. The Rays also have one of the highest strikeout rates in that split, while the Astros have one of the lowest.
Ultimately, the opportunity to grab the Astros as rare underdogs is too tempting to pass up.
Under 11.5 runs (-120)
Everyone knows that Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise, but I would add one caveat: Coors Field is a hitter’s paradise in the summer. Once the weather starts to cool down, Coors Field isn’t nearly as conducive for runs. It’s not exactly frigid at Coors at the moment, but it’s not scorching either.
Want some proof? Since the start of 2016, the Under has gone 54-36-3 at Coors Field in September and October. That’s good for a +16.4% return on investment. When looking at totals of 11 runs or greater, the ROI increases to +26.5%.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that the sharps are all over the under in this spot. It has received 99% of the handle, making it one of the heaviest bet sides on the slate. I’m happy to tag along.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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