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MLB Picks for September 15: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

I don’t want to alarm anyone, but I’m currently on fire. We’ve rebounded nicely from a rough month of August, and after a 3-0 record on article plays last Friday, our record for the season stands at a lovely 68-57. I can only assume that translates to being up about one million units. We’re going to live forever!

A small MLB slate on Thursday calls for a small card. Here are a couple more wagers I’m looking at this evening.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

First 5: Diamondbacks Over 1.5 Runs (-135)

Since the All-Star break, only the Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves have score more runs than the Diamondbacks (248). Arizona doesn’t have a ton of power in its lineup aside from Christian Walker, yet the team has been thriving on a set of principles that would make the 2015 Kansas City Royals proud: Don’t strike out and take that extra base. Within that same span of time, the Diamondbacks have stolen the most bases of any team in baseball (45), while they’re one of just six clubs with a strikeout rate below 20%. The system works!

In a vacuum, Arizona’s lineup is best served when opposed by a right-handed opponent, as the team’s collection of young outfielders is a very left-handed group. However, with Sean Manaea on the mound for the Padres tonight, I’ll make an exception. Manaea has been underwhelming to say the least across the past two months, surrendering a .606 slugging percentage and pitching to an ugly 8.15 ERA in the season’s second half. The southpaw has also been particularly bad when away from Petco Park in 2022, registering a 6.27 ERA in 74.2 innings of work on the road. Let’s just say San Diego might have been justified in skipping Manaea’s last turn through the rotation.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Tommy Edman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster season for Edman, but entering play on Thursday, the infielder is most certainly trending up. Since the All-Star break, a stretch of 174 plate appearances, Edman possesses a .202 ISO and a 130 wRC+. His bat has been so productive, that Edman, once relegated to the nine-spot in St. Louis’ lineup, is back consistently hitting in the top-third. The 27-year-old has been particularly potent in September, as he’s notched 17 hits — seven for extra bases — in his first 42 at-bats in the month. Again. He’s red-hot.

I’d anticipate the good times to continue with the Cardinals squaring off with Chase Anderson this evening. We don’t have a massive sample with the RHP in 2022, yet his 9.00 ERA and 8.00 FIP do align with how poorly Anderson has produced at the MLB level the past couple of seasons when called upon. There’s a couple things to consider with Anderson as it specifically relates to Edman. First, Anderson’s allowing a bloated .425 wOBA to LHBs. Second, the 34-year-old might not be fully stretched out, which could mean the Reds’ bullpen will have to pick up some slack — a Reds’ bullpen that owns baseball’s highest ERA (4.72). Yikes.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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