After a tough Week 1 (2-7), we got going on the right track in Week 2 (6-3-1). Let’s look to stay on the right path in Week 3, where a few short road favorites jump out to me initially. Let’s dive into some Week 3 college football plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I put the first part of my card out on Twitter earlier in the day on Monday, and then added to it on Wednesday for a grand total of six plays. I’m going to stick to these for now using the odds of when I put the plays out, and potentially add to the card on Saturday.
Sometimes I will add plays throughout the day, or play a game live, which you can fine on Twitter — @julianedlow.
FSU ML (-130)
1.5-units
I love this spot for the Seminols in another primetime game coming off their bye week. Obviously, the spotlight was on this team in the Week 1 Sunday night opener at LSU, getting with the home Tigers getting bet from -2.5 to -4.5, but FSU winning the game on a blocked extra-point. It took LSU a while to find its groove in that game, partially due to what was an FSU defense playing better than many of us expected.
But what I really loved was the QB play of Jordan Travis. The Junior made big play after big play when his team needed it, and now we’ve had a couple weeks for the hype on this team to die down a big. Meanwhile, Louisville got upset by Syracuse in Week 1, but came back with a Friday night road win as underdogs at UCF. While Malik Cunningham is terrifying as a runner, he went just 14-for-29 passing the ball, and still hasn’t thrown a TD on the season.
FSU has a much smoother passing game at this stage, and I like that to be the key factor that makes the difference in this game. Both teams should run the ball well, but I trust Travis to make the right plays down the field. With the extra time off to prepare, and the Cardinals is a bit of a letdown spot, give me the Seminoles on the road.
Mississippi State ML (-130)
1.5-units
Lot’s of sharp money is coming in on LSU here, but the line hasn’t budged much. Sure, maybe the Tigers should be slight favorites at home, but this team is a fade until further notice for me. Their talent was almost enough to get them over the hump at the last second during that FSU loss, but if you watched the game you could tell there are some major issues LSU needs to iron out. I’m betting on those issues being real, and resurfacing against a tough SEC opponent.
Lots of arguing and frustration on that LSU sideline in Week 1, and it continued in the locker room. The play that highlighted it best for me was WR Kayshon Boutte (who you’ll see in the NFL) get frustrated at a false start, and then not even look to the ball on a pass thrown to him in the end zone on the next play.
I don’t think a blowout win over Southern magically fixed the problems with the Tigers. Mississippi State does have to come into Baton Rouge off a Week 2 win in Arizona, so it’s a tough road game I suppose. But that’s the only red flag I can find.
I’m overlooking the road spot just because the Bulldogs are such a veteran squad. They bring back eight starters on each side of the ball, including QB Will Rogers, who has led this team to 49 points in Week 1 against Memphis and 39 points at Arizona in Week 2. Don’t think the Tigers will ultimately keep up.
Air Force/Penn State ML Parlay (-115)
1.5-units
Penn State narrowly won this matchup against Auburn at home last year on a Saturday night “White Out.” I think they have a good chance to get a road win here against the SEC, but I’ll admit, I’ve come down on this play since Monday. We can’t take bets back, though, so assuming Air Force takes care of business against a dreadful Wyoming squad on Friday night, we could have a chance to buy out of this one if we want to.
Auburn is a solid team and can run the ball with Tank Bigsby. However, I’m down on the Tigers when it comes to the passing game. Former LSU Tiger T.J. Finley Auburn put up just 24 points in a game it trailed San Jose State at halftime, and Finley was just a game manager in this one. Auburn ran the ball well, but that should get much tougher against Penn State.
But in that game against San Jose State, the Spartans gained just 1.9 yards per carry on 29 attempts. I’m not sure if that makes me like Auburn, or dislike them for still trailing in the game. PSU will pack much more of a punch on the ground, and I think they also have the QB advantage with Sean Clifford.
Bottom line — I think Penn State has enough to win this one, but I may buy out to a smaller play, or take some +3 and look for a small middle window due to the tough road atmosphere.
Syracuse ML (-120)
1.5-units
Dare I say the Orange are off to a dominant 2-0 start? Sitting at 2-0 SU/ATS with a win as underdogs against Louisville, I don’t think many of us had this spot as a pick ‘em type game hosting Purdue.
This Boilermakers’ offense is almost the complete opposite of the Louisville team that ‘Cuse upset. The Cardinals struggled in the air and did most of their damage on the ground, while Purdue seemed terrified to run it in that Thursday night opener against Penn State, but let Aidan O’Connell sling it 59 times. That said, the Orange forced Cunningham into mistakes (two interceptions) that UCF was unable to do.
The dome will be hyped for this one, and I think the combination of Garrett Shrader and Sean Tucker are lethal enough to get this win for the home team. Look for some shaky defense against the pass from the Boilermakers on the road.
Western Kentucky +6.5 (-115)
1.5-units
A lot of sharp people that make their own power ratings have Western Kentucky as a favorite in this game. The Hoosiers snuck past Illinois in the opener, and then actually trailed Idaho 10-0 at halftime before waking up and securing the victory in the second half. Indiana will play its third straight home game to begin the season here, but gets a WKU team that should bring more firepower than anyone they’ve seen thus far.
The Hilltoppers haven’t really been tested yet, but put up 38 points against Austin Peay and then 49 at Hawaii. This should be more of a grind, but one that Western Kentucky is capable of winning. I’ll take the dog to hang in there and at least cover.
Georgia State Team Total OVER 40.5 (-110)
1.5-units
Very elementary handicap on this one. The Charlotte defense, particularly in the secondary, is absolutely atrocious. So far this season, they’ve given up 43 to Florida Atlantic, 41 to William & Mary and then 56 to Maryland in a game the Terps took their foot off the gas late. This trend also goes back to late last season when Charlotte couldn’t keep an opponent under 40.
Georgia State is frustrated to be 0-2, but has faced good competition in South Carolina and North Carolina. Look for a breakout game here from the big favorite, and the scoreboard to light up early and often for the Panthers.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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