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NFL Futures Outlook: Notable Market Movement Following Week 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook

Julian Edlow covers notable movement in the NFL futures market on DraftKings Sportsbook following the Week 1 games.

One of my favorite parts of betting throughout any sports season is that it’s not just about the given games on that day/week. With the growth of betting over the years, and the creative markets posted on DraftKings Sportsbook, we can keep betting the futures market throughout the duration of the season. With that in mind, this article will highlight some of the most notable movement within the futures market (whether it be team or player related) after each week of games. Here are some markets to keep an eye on following the Week 1 slate.

NFC East

The Cowboys opened up as favorites to win the division once again, and while it took all summer, the Eagles picked up a ton of hype. Prior to kickoff in Week 1, the Eagles (+140) had just jumped the Cowboys (+160) as slight division favorites. One game has changed a lot.

The Eagles did what they were supposed to do as 5.5-point favorites, and earned a Week 1 victory. The offense looked fantastic in the win, dropping 38 points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys managed just three points in their opener, and more importantly, lost Dak Prescott to hand surgery.

Combine the loss and the injury with the fact that every other team in the division won on Sunday, and now Dallas checks in at +650 to win the NFC East — longest odds in the division! While it would’ve been great to fire on Philly prior to the season, I wrote them up in my best bets article as a play at -140 to win the NFC East.

As for Week 2, Dallas was -2.5 hosting the Bengals on the lookahead line. That spread re-opened with CIN -6.5 (which I also backed in my article), and has since ballooned to -8. A double-digit swing on the game in just a span of a couple days.

NFC North

Another spot where we missed the preseason value, when the Vikings (+250) and Packers (-175) had a pretty wide gap in the division prior to Week 1. Despite the division odds. Minnesota moved from a dog to a favorite over Green Bay in Week 1, and won the game handily.

I liked what I saw from the Vikings under their new head coach, and really didn’t like what I saw from the Packers when it comes to life without Davante Adams. With the Pack now +110 and the Vikings still sitting behind them at +150, I think we eventually see Minnesota become the favorite here. Although, I will say the Vikings are on the road in Philly in Week 2, while the Packers look to bounce-back at home as double-digit favorites over the Bears. You could wait to snag this one sometime down the line.

AFC South

This division had a bad day, and the odds prove it. The Colts opened +100 to win the division, and were bet to -130 by Week 1. Personally, I wrote them up at a slightly better number in July, as a play on a division winner I was very high on. Unfortunately, the Colts fell behind 20-3 in Houston, before going on a run to tie the game. But they waited to late to turn it on, and that’s exactly where the game ended — a tie. Funny enough, the 0-0-1 Colts and Texans are also now tied for the division lead, as the rest of the division lost their games.

Now the Colts go on the road again, as favorites over Jacksonville, and can look to finally grab a division lead. The Texans and Titans are both roughly double-digit road dogs in Denver and Buffalo.

But the funny part in all of this is the current division odds. Despite finishing in a tie as a seven-point favorite in Week 1, the Colts have grown to -140 favorites in the division. That’s how poor the rest of the field was.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

This is such a unique rookie of the year market. We should be in store to see a lot of different favorites before the year is over. Compare this to the 2020 class — the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailo and a stud WR in Justin Jefferson. The 2021 class has six different starting QBs (when healthy) in the league right now, plus a stud WR in Ja’Marr Chase. This class has zero starting QBs, and it could take a while to get to one — give me Malik Willis (+5000) over Kenny Pickett (+1400) all day if you made me pick one.

But the point is that a QB is probably not the right bet this year. There are a handful of really good, but not elite rookie WRs scattered across the league, and a good chance that’s where our winner comes from. In Week 1, we saw Jahan Dotson make the big leap from +2000 all the way to a +900 co-favorite. Dotson was Carson Wentz’s go-to-guy in the red zone, catching a pair of touchdowns. However, he did catch only three passes for 40 yards total, which shows you just how much variance there could be in this rookie class for that to be enough to be favored.

Hang on, this OROY market could be a wild ride.

Comeback Player of the Year

I made a play on this market in my best bets article as well. Just a few weeks ago, Brian Robinson Jr. wasn’t even on the board here. Why would he be as a rookie? But unfortunately, Robinson was shot in an attempted robbery, and is obviously sidelined for the time-being.

While all of the other players around Robinson in the field are good players returning from serious injuries, this is just a bigger storyline to rally around. Think about Alex Smith in 2020, who won the award just for getting back on the field following his gruesome leg injury.

If Robinson is able to be a contributor in Washington’s backfield later on this season, shouldn’t that alone be enough to make him the front runner for the award?

Robinson was +450 prior to Week 1, but because Saquon Barkley, Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston all had good games, they spiked in the odds. Robinson can now be had at +650 to win the award, and is an intriguing play that we can all root for.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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