Monday's MLB slate is on the smaller side, with just seven contests to choose from. That said, that still gives us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
The Pick: A’s ML (-125)
This matchup features two AL West squads who have had dismal seasons. The Angels got off to a strong start, jumping out to a 24-13 record, but they have stumbled tremendously since then. They’re currently 46-63, giving them a five-game lead over the A’s for the worst record in the American League.
With that in mind, you can make a strong case that the A’s have been better than the Angels for most of the past few months. Over the past 30 days, the A’s rank 22nd in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, while the Angels rank 28th. The A’s mark of 89 makes them slightly below average in that split, while the Angels' mark of 64 is disastrous.
Both teams will have left-handed starters on the bump on Monday, and I give the A’s the edge in that department as well. They’ll turn to Cole Irvin, who has had a solid year. He’s pitched to a 3.04 ERA and a 3.88 FIP, including a 1.73 ERA at home. Oakland is one of the most spacious ballparks in the majors, which is a major help to a contact pitcher like Irvin.
Jose Suarez will get the ball for the Angels, and he has worse marks than Irvin basically across the board. It feels weird to back the A’s as favorites, but I think they’re underpriced in this spot.
The Pick: Giants ML (+160)
The Padres won the trade deadline, but that’s yet to result in tangible on-field results. They were just swept by the Dodgers, all but assuring that the Padres will have to make the playoffs via the Wild Card: FanGraphs gives the Dodgers a 99.7% chance of winning the NL West.
The Padres also played on Sunday Night Baseball, so they’ll have a quick turnaround before starting a series with the Giants. The Giants were sellers at the trade deadline, but they did keep most of their core intact. They’ll have Alex Wood on the mound on Monday, who remains a capable starting pitcher. His 4.42 ERA isn’t impressive, but his 3.72 xERA suggests he’s been unlucky. Wood continues to strike out just under a batter per inning, and he’s above average from a Statcast perspective as well.
The Padres will have a very similar starter on the mound in Blake Snell. Like Wood, his xERA is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA (3.44 vs. 4.16). Snell is better at generating swings and misses, but he also ranks in just the ninth percentile in average exit velocity.
The safest bet in this contest might be under 7.5 runs, but I can’t resist the Giants at +160. With the pitching matchup being roughly equal, +160 is an excellent proposition.
The Pick: Yankees ML (-115)
The Yankees have been slumping recently. They’ve lost six of their past seven games, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals this weekend. Their upcoming schedule is brutal – they play the Mariners, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, and Mets in their next six series – so they need to turn things around quickly.
Luckily, the Yankees have more than enough talent to do so. They’ve outscored their opponents by 201 runs this season, which trails only the Dodgers' mark of 226. Their +73 run differential on the road is also the second-best mark in the league.
The Mariners have had a solid season, but they’re simply not in the same weight class as the Yankees. They’ve outscored their opponents by just 18 runs this year, which ranks merely 14th in baseball.
This is one of the few opportunities we’ve had to buy low on the Yankees. Let’s take advantage.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.