Tuesday is typically a big day for MLB betting, and this one is no exception. All 30 major league teams are in action, in each game starts at 6:10 p.m. ET or later.
Rangers ML (+130)
The Astros have been the most impressive team in the AL this season, but the Rangers stand out as a quality option on Tuesday.
They’re sending Dane Dunning to the mound, who has shown some serious improvement of late. He owns a 3.51 ERA over the second half of the season, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his past six starts. Dunning has also been significantly better at home this season, with his ERA dropping by two full runs compared to his road mark.
The Rangers will face a tough task against Framber Valdez, who has pitched to a 2.65 ERA in 2022. That said, he has out-pitched his peripherals. His 3.33 xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, and he ranks in the 27th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Additionally, the Rangers have feasted on left-handed pitching this season. They rank fourth in wRC+, and they’re third in that split over the past 14 days.
Finally, the Rangers are receiving some heavy sharp activity in the betting market. They’ve received 80% of the dollars on just 26% of the bets, which is one of the largest discrepancies on the slate.
Orioles ML (+130)
The Orioles have been arguably the biggest surprise of the 2022 season. That is reflected in their betting numbers. They’ve rewarded bettors with a 20.4% return on investment, which is easily the top mark in the league. Only seven other teams have been a net positive for bettors this season, and no one else has cracked a double-digit ROI.
Unsurprisingly, the Orioles have also been the most-profitable underdog team this season. They’ve gone 57-55 in that situation, resulting in a 21.1% return on investment. That means a $100 bettor would be up more than $2,350 if they bet the Orioles every time they were underdogs this season.
Let’s continue to ride the Birds as dogs on Tuesday. They’re taking on the Guardians, and they have a winnable matchup against Cal Quantrill. He owns a 3.59 ERA this season, but his 4.39 xERA suggests he’s been pedestrian. Quantrill is also averaged just 5.92 strikeouts per nine innings, which puts him in the ninth percentile for MLB pitchers.
The Orioles aren’t offensive juggernauts, but they are above average against right-handed pitchers. They rank 14th in wRC+ in that split, and they’re 12th in ISO.
Overall, the Orioles have won 64% of their games since the beginning of July, so I don’t think they deserve to be underdogs in this spot.
Tigers ML (+140)
The Tigers may have a star pitcher on their hands. Matt Manning entered the 2021 season as the No. 12 prospect in baseball, but he struggled to a 5.80 ERA in 18 starts. However, he has turned things around completely in 2022. He’s pitched to a 2.37 ERA over 38 innings, and he’s allowed just one earned run over his past two starts. His strikeout numbers for the year are pedestrian, but that seems to be a case of a small sample size. He’s racked up 26 strikeouts in his past 25 innings, so he clearly has the potential to miss bats.
Manning’s biggest issue is that he pitches for the Tigers. Their offense is historically bad, so there’s no guarantee he gets any run support. They’ll be facing a right-hander in George Kirby, and they rank dead-last in wRC+ against right-handers this season.
With that in mind, you can certainly make a case for the under on 7.5 runs, but the +140 odds on the Tigers are too good to pass up. If they can give Manning a couple of runs, he should be able to make them hold up.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.