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NFL - NCAAF Special Market on DraftKings Sportsbook: NFL vs. CFB Head-to-Head Wins Analysis, Picks, Predictions

Julian Edlow offers his analysis on a new market on DraftKings Sportsbook — NFL - NCAAF head-to-head wins

Miami Dolphins Mandatory Minicamp Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

DraftKings Sportsbook never fails to get creative with new markets, and we have a pretty creative one that just dropped to begin August. We now have the ability to bet on 26 head-to-head win matchups between an NFL team against a comparable college football team. Of course, NFL teams play 17 games, while CFB teams only get 12 cracks on their schedule. But this market opens to door for some good debate and a cool new way to get involved in the futures market for football season. You can check out the full offering of head-to-heads here, but below I’ll break down four that jumped out to me.

Please note that state regulations will not allow these markets in AZ, IL, LA and NJ. This market is pending approval, but not yet live in NY.

NY Giants (-135) > LSU

Both of these teams’ win totals sit at 7-flat on DKSB, but with LSU juiced more towards the under. It’ll be Brian Kelly’s first year with the Tigers, and while he should still help, there’s plenty of work to be done. I don’t see an 8-4 season on the table for LSU in the very difficult SEC West, with 6-7 wins an extremely likely outcome.

On the flip side, I see more of a 7-win floor for the Giants. Things haven’t been pretty in the past, but the G-Men nailed both of their top-10 picks, and have a complete turnover on the coaching staff. They should improve significantly, which means a lot in the lowly NFC East.

With those five extra games on the table, I could see winning this play in favor of the Giants by a final count of 7-6 or even 8-7. Worst case scenario feels like a 7-7 push.

MIA Dolphins (-140) > Miami FL

Both of these teams enter 2022 with a good amount of hype. The Hurricanes win total sits at 8.5 on DKSB, while the Dolphins have moved up to 9-flat. The ‘Canes play at Texas A&M and at Clemson this season, which are two very difficult games. The schedule also has a few other potential losses on there, so the win total is spot on. The U should wind up with 8-9 wins.

However, despite a tough schedule, I really believe the Dolphins have made real improvements where they matter. Tua Tagovailoa might be an average QB, but he’ll improve based on what’s around him. Tyreek Hill is a flashy addition, but I case more about the bolstered offensive line — not to mention returning almost all of a very solid starting defense.

The floor on the Dolphins feels like an 8-win team. If the Hurricanes play to their ceiling and the Dolphins their floor, there’s a path to a loss. But I think many more outcomes here point to a win. Again, if the price is close, give me those extra five games for the NFL team.

NO Saints (-175) > Ole Miss

This is the juiciest one that I feel has some value. The Saints are at 8-flat on DKSB, but heavily juiced to the over. Ole Miss has the same -140 juice on the over for their 7.5 wins. Ole Miss does play in that insanely tough SEC West, and while they could start the season 6-1 or even 7-0, they could also be dogs in their final five games. The Rebels finish the season up at LSU, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas and vs. Mississippi State. Any early slip ups for Ole Miss could really hurt them. I think this is a 7-win team, but an 8-win team feels like the ceiling.

The Saints lose Sean Payton, but get Jameis Winston back at QB and Michael Thomas back at WR (along with a nice draft pick in Chris Olave). This should be a good offense. Playing in the NFC South, the schedule is kind to the Saints — four games against the Falcons and Panthers. Don’t forget, New Orleans always plays the Buccaneers tough as well, but let’s give them four wins in the division.

That means a 4-7 record on the rest of the schedule would be enough to early us a push if Ole Miss played to its ceiling (and a win if they don’t). Of course, the Saints could always just get over their win total to nine games, which I don’t think even gives the Rebels a chance.

FSU (-115) > JAX Jaguars

I had to get to one potential play on the college side if I was going to write this article. I already played the Jags under 6.5 wins, but they come with a pretty low floor (even with the positive coaching change). Let’s remember, this franchise has won more than six games just once over the last 11 seasons. Jacksonville is a combined 4-29 over the last two seasons. I don’t see how they can improve enough to be better than six wins.

FSU gained some momentum late last season after a dreadful start, and seems to have a 6-6 type of floor to them. A 7-8 win season wouldn’t be crazy given the talent the Seminoles return. Would I rather just bet the under on the Jacksonville win total? Yes, but I’m playing along here and making the case.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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