VSiN recently did a tremendous job putting out their 115-page 2022 NFL Betting Guide. It includes predictions, picks and data from 17 analysts that come together to give us their winners for each division, all of their playoff teams along with conference and Super Bowl winners. The team provides 15 best bets on win totals, along with segments breaking down data that can help you place your bets this season.
In the VSiN College Football Betting Guide review, this was just a consensus picks segment. With just six analysts, and a sport where powerhouse schools can dominate, we had four consensus picks for conference winners, and two more for their divisions. Now with 17 analysts and a much more volatile market, we’ll just discuss some of the most popular selections.
That said, we did have ONE consensus pick to win a division ...
Pretty self-explanatory here as all 17 analysts picked Buffalo. The Bills are Super Bowl favorites and play in a division that a lot of people feel the Jets and Patriots are trending downward in. Regardless of how you feel about the Dolphins, it’s tough to see anyone dethroning the Bills at this stage. The juice is steep, but as a parlay piece, the Bills feel like a mighty safe leg.
Surprisingly, the Buccaneers (-250) are the heaviest favorite to win their division, slightly ahead of the Bills, and received just 10 of the 17 picks to win the NFC South (New Orleans received the other seven).
AFC South: Colts (-130) — 15/17 analysts pick
Not only did the Titans win the AFC South last season, but their 12-5 record was enough to surprisingly make them the No. 1 seed in the AFC overall. Of course, Ryan Tannehill and the Titans puked all over themselves in the playoffs, proving that it might have been a bit of a flukey season. Now factor in that Tennessee likely regresses this season, losing A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, Derek Henry is a year older, and the defense has never been great.
The Colts improved an already solid defense, and then swap in Matt Ryan for Carson Wentz. We all expect that to be a huge upgrade, especially with such a good offensive line and running game in place. I wrote up Indy to win their division as my first NFL play in July.
AFC North: Ravens (+140) — 13/17 analysts pick
To have 13 of 17 analysts pick you to win your division at plus money is big-time praise (and probably means Baltimore is a pretty sharp play here). Adam Burke wrote up the win total as a best bet (which we’ll get to) and made a great point on this team — the Ravens were sitting at 8-3 last season before the wheels fell off. After a bunch of injuries, including Lamar Jackson, Baltimore lost six straight and was below .500. Five of the six losses were by three or less, and four of them were to playoff teams. It was just a very unlucky stretch.
So with the Bengals getting all the hype off a Super Bowl appearance, the Browns in a tough situation with Deshaun Watson, and the Steelers rebuilding ... this feels like a season for the Ravens to bounce-back.
Convincing Best Bets
The standard win total on Baltimore on DK is priced at O9.5 (-160), but Burke is trying to avoid the juice here. We’re basically pricing O10.5 and to win the division within five cents of each other, saying 11 wins will win the AFC North. I don’t mind playing the win total either way, or just going with the division winner. I went over the rest of the teams in the division, who all have cause for concern this season. 10-7 won the division for Cincinnati last year, and Baltimore should be able to top that this season.
The Bears win total under has been mashed all offseason, but that doesn’t mean it’s the right side. In fact, three of the analysts wrote up this win total as a best bet. I bet this one earlier on at -140, and the juice has been the only thing keeping my from writing an article on it. Bottom line — Chicago has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL and brings in a rookie head coach. Coming off a 6-11 season, it’s hard to comprehend how this team improves. I’m fine with betting the win total under with the juice, but for a cheaper price, you could consider betting the Bears to finish last in the NFC North.
What Quality of Wins/Losses May Mean in 2022
A breakdown of six different systems looking at games the previews season that may help predict the upcoming season.
Key Stats to Predict Big Moves
Similar to above, four more systems that look at key statistics from 2021 and use them to help predict teams that could improve in 2022.
What to Expect from Rookie Head Coaches
There are 10 new head coaches in the NFL this season, which is quite a bit of turnover. Five of them are rookie head coaches. The guide gives a breakdown of those five coaches, along with historical numbers on how rookie head coaches perform.
2021 Situational Records
A recap of each team’s 2021 season with their records in each situation — example: ATS as an underdog. It’s a good reminder, not all teams are created equal. The Bears has a 6-11 record and were 6-11 ATS. Meanwhile, the Lions went 3-13-1, but were a remarkable 11-6 ATS.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (ONT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).21+ (18+ NH/WY; 19+ ONT). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/ONT/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.