Football season is upon us, which means it’s time to start previewing some NFL odds from a DraftKings Sportsbook perspective. Below, I’ll break down the futures market for the four teams in the NFC South.
Super Bowl Odds: +750
NFC Conference Odds: +330
NFC South Division Odds: -250
Team Total: 11.5
To Make Playoffs: -600
Week 1 Odds: -1.5 (at DAL)
MVP: Tom Brady (+850)
OPOY: Leonard Fournette (+8000), Mike Evans (+8000)
DPOY: Devin White (+5000), Lavonte David (+10000), Vita Vea (+10000)
COY: Todd Bowles (+2500)
The prodigal son returns to training camp after a 15-second retirement only to find that he and his squad are at the top of the division odds again. Tom Brady and Co. will go into the 2022-23 season as the betting favorite from this division after tying the Green Bay Packers last season for the best record in football (13-4). The Bucs were 10-9 ATS last year, covering just under 53% of the time, but were much better at home, recording a 7-3 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium. This season is the first year with Todd Bowles as the head coach of the Buccaneers, and Chris Godwin should still be unavailable in the early part of the season. Still, this is their division to lose, especially when the GOAT is under center, despite his advanced age.
Super Bowl Odds: +4000
NFC Conference Odds: +2000
NFC South Division Odds: +310
Team Total: 8.5
To Make Playoffs: +125
Week 1 Odds: -5.5 (at ATL)
MVP: Jameis Winston (+8000)
OROY: Chris Olave (+1000)
OPOY: Michael Thomas (+6000), Alvin Kamara (+6000)
CPOY: Jameis Winston (+550), Michael Thomas (+800)
COY: Dennis Allen (+3000)
The pride of Crescent City should be the biggest contender to usurp Tampa Bay as the leader in the NFC South. There are a lot of question marks this season — how will the team play without Dree Brees and Sean Payton? The Saints had been led by both since 2006 and now go into the new season with Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston as head coach and starting quarterback. Michael Thomas will suit up this season after missing all of last season, and the Saints may depend heavily on rookie wide receiver Chris Olave if Thomas’ season doesn’t get off to a hot start. All is not lost with Winston under center. When he was a starter, he went 5-2 in seven games last year. The Saints shored up their offensive line, picking Trevor Penning with the 19th pick overall. In the offseason, the Saints also acquired Jarvis Landry to bring stability and a veteran presence to the locker room. Last season, they were the only team other than the Buccaneers to have a positive point differential, outdoing their opponents by 29 points. They were 9-8 ATS last year, and they were much better on the road, going 6-3 ATS with a +4.1 average margin of victory.
Super Bowl Odds: +13000
NFC Conference Odds: +7000
NFC South Division Odds: +900
Team Total: 6.5
To Make Playoffs: +350
Week 1 Odds: -1.5 (vs. CLE)
MVP: Christian McCaffrey (+10000)
OPOY: Christian McCaffrey (+2500)
DPOY: Brian Burns (+5000)
DROY: Brandon Smith (+8000)
CPOY: Baker Mayfield (+800)
COY: Matt Rhule (+4000)
The Panthers are going with Baker Mayfield as their opening week starter, which should upgrade the entire offense. Still, the Panthers and Matt Rhule are on the hot seat again this season. The Sam Darnold experience was a failure, and their defense couldn’t stop anyone last season, getting outscored by 100 points. McCaffrey has to stay healthy for this team to be competitive — he’s only played in 10 total games over the previous two seasons. You never want to wish ill-will on anyone, but it’s hard to see Matt Rhule as the coach by the season’s end.
Super Bowl Odds: +20000
NFC Conference Odds: +10000
NFC South Division Odds: +3500
Team Total: 5
To Make Playoffs: +800
Week 1 Odds: +5.5 (vs. NO)
MVP: Marcus Mariota (+10000), Kyle Pitts (+20000)
OROY: Drake London (+1400), Desmond Ritter (+2000)
DROY: Arnold Ebiketie (+5000)
CPOY: Marcus Mariota (+1600)
COY: Arthur Smith (+5000)
No team was outscored more in this division than the Atlanta Falcons, sporting a -146 point differential against their opponents. Still, they won two more games than the Carolina Panthers and added Drake London and Desmond Ritter from this year’s draft. They also acquired Marcus Mariota from the Las Vegas Raiders in free agency, reuniting him with Arthur Smith. As much as I love my fellow Hawaiian, Mariota and the Falcons could have a tough time competing this season, especially in this division. The Falcons were 5-3-1 ATS as an away team but finished 6-10-1 ATS, losing games by an average of 8.6 points. Even though Kyle Pitts and London have potential in fantasy circles, the Falcons may be best left on the side when considering bets this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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