Football season is upon us, which means it’s time to start previewing some NFL odds from a DraftKings Sportsbook perspective. Below, I’ll break down the futures market for the four teams in the AFC South.
AFC Conference Odds: +1200
AFC South Division Odds: -130
Team Win Total: 10
To Make Playoffs: -190
Week 1 Spread: -9 (at HOU)
MVP: Matt Ryan (+3500), Jonathan Taylor (+5000)
OPOY: Jonathan Taylor (+1000)
DPOY: Darius Shaquille Leonard (+3000), Stephon Gilmore (+5000)
OROY: Alec Pierce (+3000)
COY: Frank Reich (+2000)
The first NFL future I wrote up this summer was on the Colts to win the AFC South. This team was right there last season, but got swept by the Titans, partially due to the mistakes of Carson Wentz. I think things will be different this year. The Jaguars and Texans remain extremely unlikely candidates to be able to contend in the division, leaving this as a two-horse race.
Last season left a bad taste in Indy’s mouth, losing the final game of the season in Jacksonville to cough of a playoff spot. The Colts are solid across the board, and make the massive upgrade from Wentz to Matt Ryan. More accurate passes and less turnovers should really help a steady offense that already prides itself on the offensive line. The defense has also been good in recent seasons, and adds 2019 DPOY Stephon Gilmore. Pair all this with some regression for Tennessee, and I feel we have a great shot at a division winner here.
AFC Conference Odds: +2000
AFC South Division Odds: +175
To Make Playoffs: +100
Week 1 Spread: -6 (vs. NYG)
MVP: Derek Henry (+5000)
OPOY: Derek Henry (+1400)
OROY: Treylon Burkes (+1800), Malik Willis (+5000)
DROY: Roger McCreary (+4000)
CPOY: Derek Henry (+400), Robert Woods (+5000)
COY: Mike Vrabel (+2500)
After taking down the division in 2021, we watched Ryan Tannehill puke all over himself in the postseason, tossing thee of the most backbreaking interceptions you’ll see in a playoff game. Maybe that had something to do with why the team selected Malik Willis in the mid-rounds of the draft.
Either way, it feels like the Titans are in position to take a step back in 2022. Tannehill will see a downgrade at WR, losing A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burkes. While Henry is favored to win CPOY, he’s also coming off injury and has a ton of miles on his legs in recent seasons (RB is another position the Titans invested in during the draft). With nothing special on the defensive side of the ball, I think the Titans fall short of expectations this season, further clearing a path for the Colts.
AFC Conference Odds: +6500
AFC South Division Odds: +750
Team Win Total: 6.5
To Make Playoffs: +450
Week 1 Spread: +3 (at WAS)
DPOY: Josh Allen (+5000)
DROY: Travon Walker (+800), Devin Lloyd (+1500)
CPOY: Travis Etienne (+2000)
COY: Doug Pederson (+1800)
How many times have we heard that it’s going to be the Jaguars’ year in the AFC South? I’ll admit, those awful records in recent seasons have allowed Jacksonville to add some decent talent in the draft — and this time they look to actually have some promise, unlike the busts of other eras. And Pederson is an obvious upgrade in the coaching department over the Urban Meyer mess. But still, to go over their win total, this team is going to have to do something it has done once in the last 11 seasons — win at least seven games.
Outside of the 10-win season in 2017 where the Jags were a bad bounce away from a Super Bowl appearance, they’ve won six or fewer games each season since 2010. That includes a combined four victories over the last two seasons, which is how you land consecutive No. 1 overall picks (Trevor Lawrence and Travon Walker). Until I see it from Jacksonville I just can’t believe that this is the season they get over the hump. I’ll take the under on 6.5 wins.
AFC Conference Odds: +13000
AFC South Division Odds: +3000
Team Win Total: 4.5
To Make Playoffs: +1600
Week 1 Spread: +9 (vs. IND)
OROY: Dameon Pierce (+1600)
DROY: Derek Stingley Jr. (+1200), Jalen Pitre (+4000)
COY: Lovie Smith (+5000)
The Deshaun Watson situation was obviously a huge hit to this franchise, which went 4-13 last season without him. It’s a rebuilding phase in Houston, however, let’s remember what this team was in its last season with Watson — just 4-12 with the QB playing in all 16 games and posting over 4,800 yards with a 33-7 TD to INT ratio. Even with elite QB play, the lack of talent on this roster has not been enough to win in recent years, and not many upgrades have been made.
I don’t have much of a feel for this team in the futures market. Could it improve to five wins and cash an over, perhaps. Or it could win four games as it has in consecutive seasons. The market is already priced where it should be against a team this lackluster, leaving us limited value. Expect the Texans to be selecting in the top-five once again, and maybe one of the first teams to fire their head coach this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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