The college football season is right around the corner, and while I’ve been putting out plays all summer, it’s time to finish up that futures card before turning to betting the games. For this play, we’re looking at a low win total under on a team on DraftKings Sportsbook, despite the fact they have the advantage of playing 13 games.

Hawaii UNDER 4.5 Wins (-150)

1.5-units

The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a solid 6-7 season, but this team will have just about as much turnover as anyone in the country. As mentioned in the open, we’re dealing with a team that plays 13 games here, but even so, getting to 5-8 would be a heck of an accomplishment for this group in the Mountain West.

A Week 0 game hosting Vanderbilt will be a key game off the bat to cash this under, sitting as around a touchdown dog all summer. Hawaii goes on as an underdog against WKU the following week, and then makes a trip for a scheduled loss at Michigan. They should be 0-3 when they get their first crack at a win, their easiest game of the season against Duquesne.

If Hawaii is indeed sitting at 1-3 through four games, as I expect, it essentially has four win-able games the rest of the way out. If the Rainbow Warriors can win all four coin flip games, we tip our caps and take the loss, but I don’t see that happening. Games at New Mexico State, vs. Nevada, vs. Wyoming and vs. UNLV could all have spreads around a field goal or less. Even if Hawaii goes 3-1 in those games, they’d have to likely pull a double-digit upset to cost us an under.

Let’s keep in mind that last season this team had a solid coach in Todd Graham along with 18 returning starters, helping them to a 4-4 start before dropping three in a row. Now Hawaii brings in former player Timmy Chang as a rookie head coach, and got slammed with players entering the transfer portal. The Rainbow Warriors return five starters, so Chang won’t have much to work with. Tough to imagine they can close out all those potential close games on the schedule to go over their win total.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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