Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Wednesday’s slate of MLB games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Detroit Money Line +185
The Tigers entered Tuesday’s contest with Cleveland having lost 14 of their last 17 games. With such a dreadful performance of late, their odds should be longer. The fact that they’re under +200 to win suggests that this is a live dog.
Daniel Norris will start for the Tigers on Wednesday night. He began the season as a reliever for the Cubs, but was released after recording a 6.90 ERA through 30 innings. That’s scary, but he had a 3.78 xFIP and a 32.1% K rate. The lefty chose to return to Detroit, where he pitched from 2015-2021 as a steady back-end rotation arm. Before returning to the majors last week, Norris made three starts at Toledo to stretch his arm out. In those three starts, he tossed 8.2 innings, allowed two earned runs and recorded five strikeouts. In his return last Friday, he held the White Sox scoreless across 4.2 innings.
Cleveland has a .277 wOBA (29th), .106 ISO (30th) and a 78 wRC+ (29th) against left-handed pitching. Norris has pitched better than his traditional numbers indicate, and in a soft matchup, he should lead the underdog Tigers to victory.
Total Over 7 Runs (-120)
This is too low of a number. The Rockies’ lineup struggles outside of Coors Field (82 wRC+), but the first-place Cardinals could get to seven runs alone. Over the last 30 days, the Cards rank second in wRC+ (131) and wOBA (.354).
Germán Márquez has been slightly better outside of Colorado, but his 4.52 away FIP is not much better than his 4.84 home FIP. He continues to be exemplary when it comes to limiting fly balls, but he allows too much contact (80.4%), too much hard contact (35.2%) and does not generate enough swing and misses (9.7%). Despite the solid ground ball stats, he does allow fly balls from time to time and given the high contact rate and hard contact rate, those fly balls tend to go over fences. His 1.5 HR/9 is a career-worst mark and his 17.8% HR/FB ratio is the second-worst in the league.
The question is not whether the Cardinals will produce, but whether the Rockies can pitch in some runs and make this an easy cover. Jordan Montgomery has been phenomenal in his two starts with St. Louis. His first start was a revenge game with the Yankees. He followed that up with eight strikeouts across six scoreless innings against the Brewers — a team that struggles against left-handed pitching. In contrast, the Rockies are one of the best teams in baseball vs. left-handed pitching. Colorado has a .338 wOBA (third) and a minuscule 18.9% strikeout rate (third).
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+275)
Michael Kopech is a decent pitcher, but his 3.18 ERA is misleading. Kopech makes it through games, but it isn’t pretty. His xFIP is 4.69 and his fly ball rate is 48% (top-5 worst). His 10.3% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about. Kopech relies on smoke and mirrors and it works for him. His .225 BABIP suggests luck is a huge factor but through 100 innings, he has managed to limit the damage. Kopech will likely survive again, but that does not mean he’ll escape unblemished. Four times, he has allowed multiple home runs in a game. On July 5, the Twins took him yard four times. He has surrendered a home run in six of his last nine starts. Finally, Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago) has been the second-most home run friendly park over the last three seasons.
Kyle Tucker is crushing right-handed pitching. He has a .373 wOBA and .235 ISO vs. RHP. Of his 21 home runs, 14 are against right-handed pitchers along with 11 of his 18 doubles. Tucker plays most of his games in a park that is neutral to bad for left-handed hitters. The majority of his home runs and doubles have come on the road vs. RHP. In this split (116 at-bats), Tucker has a .458 wOBA, .362 ISO and 209 wRC+. It’s Tucker time.
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