Monday's MLB slate is bigger than usual. There are 14 contests to choose from, including 13 starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.
The Pick: Nationals ML (+120)
The Cubs and Nationals are not good baseball teams, and I’ll always have some interest in the underdog when two bad teams square off. The Cubs are slightly better than the Nats — they’ve won nine additional games — but I’m not sure they deserve to be road favorites.
The Cubs will start Marcus Stroman, who might be the most overrated pitcher in baseball. He was viewed as a big free agent signing for the Cubs in the offseason, but he’s managed just a 4.20 ERA in his 79 1/3 innings. His 4.40 xERA suggests he hasn’t been particularly unlucky either.
The Nats will turn to Josiah Gray, and I remain optimistic about his long-term outlook. He was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he’s racked up 10.18 strikeouts per nine innings this season. His results haven’t always been pretty — he owns a 4.81 ERA this season — but his 3.99 xERA suggests he’s capable of more.
I give the Nationals a slight pitching advantage in this spot, so I’m happy to grab them as home underdogs.
The Pick: Orioles ML (+135)
What do the Orioles have to do to get some respect? They’ve lost three of their past four games, but they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball. They’ve gone all the way from 11 games under .500 to six games over, which has put them squarely in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.
They’ll have the chance to make up some ground in their series vs. the Blue Jays. On Monday, they’re taking on left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He’s struggled to the tune of a 5.13 ERA and a 5.97 xERA, so the Orioles have the chance to do some damage in this spot. They haven’t been particularly impressive against left-handers, but they rank 12th in wRC+ in that split over the past 30 days.
The Orioles are also garnering plenty of sharp support in this matchup. They’ve received just 50% of the moneyline bets, but they’ve accounted for 99% of the moneyline dollars.
The Pick: Mariners ML (-110)
It’s always scary to bet against Shohei Ohtani, who has turned in a monster year as a pitcher. He’s averaging just under 13 strikeouts per nine innings to go along with a 2.68 ERA and xERA.
However, the Angels offense has been a disaster since losing Mike Trout. They rank just 23rd in wRC+ against right-handers over the past 30 days, and they rank just 25th in runs per game this season. With that in mind, it’s not surprising Ohtani has seven losses despite his excellent pitching numbers.
The Mariners will have an elite starter of their own on the mound Monday in Luis Castillo. He’s posted a 2.71 ERA this season, and he’s pitched incredibly well in his two starts with the Mariners. Both have come vs. the Yankees — arguably the best offensive team in baseball — and he held them to just three runs over 14 2/3 innings.
Castillo should be able to mow down this Angels lineup, so his offense isn’t going to need to do much to secure a win.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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