As always, Apple TV+ will host two baseball games tonight, with both starting at 7 p.m. ET. The Padres will visit the Nationals, where Juan Soto will play in Washington as a visitor for the first time in his career. We’ll also have a pitching duel between the Phillies and Mets, with Ranger Suárez taking on Max Scherzer. As always, I’ll provide two plays from each game to sweat along with as you watch.
Padres at Nationals
The wager: Padres Team Total over 5.5 runs
Line: -110 (bet $100 to win $91)
I’m expecting the Padres bats to be swinging in this one. They draw a matchup against Nats starter Cory Abbott, who has only pitched 12 2/3 innings in the Majors this season. The rest of his season has been spent in the Minors, including some time with the Cubs. He hasn’t found much success through his 12 games in the Majors, posting a 6.30 ERA through 30 innings of work. Home runs have been a major issue for Abbott, allowing 12, giving him a 3.6 HR/9. His FIP, which measures a pitcher’s effectiveness, taking plays that would involve defense out of the equation, sits at 8.92.
The Padres’ offense seems to have finally awoken after going through a horrific slump. Over the last two games against the Giants, the Padres put up 20 runs after scoring a combined seven runs in their previous five games. With the struggles that Abbott has exhibited in his short time in the Majors previously, I would think this offensive outburst would continue tonight. I would also think that Abbott is out of this game quickly, which will allow the Padres to tee off against this struggling bullpen. Through 37 2/3 innings this month, the Nats relievers have combined for a 5.97 ERA, which is currently the third highest in the league.
Padres at Nationals
The wager: Juan Soto over 1.5 bases
Line: +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Trying to make some money on the return of the “Childish Bambino.” So far as a Padre, Soto is slashing .379/.526/.980 with five of his 11 total hits going for extra bases. In his short time in the Majors, Abbott has a .456 wOBA against lefties, allowing seven of his career 12 home runs. Looking at numbers like that, I would be more than willing to take Soto to go over 1.5 bases.
Looking at his numbers from this season, Soto has gone over 1.5 bases in 44 of the 109 games played, good for 40% of his season. In a much stronger lineup with the Padres, teams are now forced to pitch to Soto, which wasn’t always the case when he was with the Nationals. With Soto hitting in front of Manny Machado, that makes a huge difference in the pitch selection he now sees. I think this is a great spot for Soto to go over 1.5 bases tonight while getting it at plus money.
Phillies at Mets
The wager: Game Total under 7 runs
Line: -110 (bet $100 to win $91)
I mean, look at this stellar pitching matchup we have for tonight. Ranger Suárez takes the hill against Max Scherzer at Citi Field. While the attention undoubtedly goes to Scherzer, Suárez has been pitching extremely well of late. His last start against the Nationals broke a streak of over 21 scoreless innings thrown by the Phillies starter. He shut out the Marlins, Braves, and Pirates before giving up three runs to the Nationals. Suárez has also been much better on the road, posting a 2.87 ERA with a .297 wOBA.
Then, of course, we have Scherzer. Since returning from the injured list in July, Scherzer has posted a 1.37 ERA, allowing just seven runs through 46 innings pitched. Admittedly, Scherzer has not fared well against the Phillies in two starts already, as they’ve tagged him for seven runs on 15 hits through 12 innings. That said, Scherzer has looked incredible since returning and has endured a very tough schedule. With that 1.37 ERA in mind, he’s faced the Braves twice, Nationals, Yankees, Padres, Cubs, and Reds. I think both starters fare well in this game, and we see under the game total of seven runs.
Phillies at Mets
The wager: Phillies Run Line +0.5 through the first 5 innings
Line: +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
I also like this bet for the Phillies at +120. If you’re unfamiliar with a run line bet, you would win this if either the Phillies lead after five innings, or the game is tied. This gives us two scenarios where we can cash it. I’m not expecting a lot of offense in this game, so banking on the Phillies to have this tied, or even better, having a lead. As I mentioned, while Scherzer has been pitching well, the Phillies have given him issues this season. They’re one of only two teams that have scored more than two earned runs off him, with the other being the Nationals (which is baffling). I think you’re getting a strong number here against a pitcher that they’ve shown they can hit against.
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