Woof. Let’s just forget about yesterday, alright? My picks went 0-2. The Field of Dreams game was a little underwhelming and, just in general, the overall lack of baseball to watch past 7:00 p.m. ET was disheartening. Well, thank goodness it’s Friday and thank goodness things are back to normal this evening.
We’re sitting at 53-46 on article plays for the season. We’ve got a full slate on MLB action. Here are three bets I’m considering.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Montgomery Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
I’ll obviously dig into this prop a little deeper, but allow me to start by simply stating that is line is clearly off. Jordan Montgomery has started 22 games between the Yankees and the Cardinals in 2022. In those 22 outings, the left-hander has exceeded this total just four times. Granted, Montgomery’s 23.8% strikeout rate since the beginning of July is a massive improvement on where he began the season, but still — four times in 22 attempts! We’re talking about a plus-money wager.
Matchup is likely a major reason for this prop being set as high as it is, with Milwaukee having struggled with LHPs throughout 2022. The Brewers actually enter tonight’s contest with the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate within the split at 24.8%. However, if we just isolate the past three weeks, Milwaukee owns the sixth-lowest chase rate since the All-Star break (30.4%), an indication that the tides are turning for this lineup. A return to health for lefty-mashers Hunter Renfroe and Mike Brosseau didn’t hurt, either.
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Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
First 5: White Sox Over 2.5 Runs (-130)
If you’ve followed along with these articles all season, you’ll know that the White Sox are the rake to my Sideshow Bob. Aside from my prevailing theory that there’s a Tony La Russa inspired curse surrounding the organization, I just can’t figure out why Chicago isn’t better than its current record indicates. Though, it should be pointed out that the one thing the White Sox have consistently done well this season is hit left-handed pitching. Coming into Friday’s action, Chicago leads all American League teams with a .273 average within the split, while the club’s 116 wRC+ is tied with Houston for the fifth-highest mark in all of baseball.
Daniel Norris is left-handed. Daniel Norris has also only started two games since the beginning of 2020 and was recently designated for assignment by the lowly Cubs. He’ll take the mound for the Tigers this evening, having surrendered a whopping 2.87 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs this season. With righties like Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Jose Abreu likely to get multiple plate appearances versus Norris, I figure the White Sox are good for a couple of early crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Under 8 (-120)
These two teams haven’t exactly been offensive powerhouses since the All-Star break. In fact, neither has even been league-average, with the Twins sporting a 99 wRC+ within that span and the Angels sitting at an 85 wRC+ — the second-lowest mark in the American League. I think both lineups will continue to perform below expectations on Friday, as we find ourselves with a sneaky-good pitching matchup in Anaheim.
We all know the deal with Tyler Mahle, who has been pretty amazing when given the opportunity to start a game anywhere but Great American Ball Park. In general, Mahle has been fantastic regardless of location his past nine outings, pitching to a 3.49 ERA and a 27.0% strikeout rate. Patrick Sandoval might not have quite the same level of recognition, yet he’s arguably been better than Mahle in 2022. The left-hander owns a 3.41 ERA and a 3.10 FIP across 18 appearances, with his 0.38 HR/9 representing the lowest figure of the 96 pitchers to throw at least 90 innings this season. Simply put, it’ll be difficult for this contest to hit the over if Minnesota isn’t hitting home runs.
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