Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saints-Buccaneers.
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
Originally, I was examining Evans’ receiving prop, with the under being my lean. Even though there might be some rust for Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) if he’s able to make his return Monday, he has Evans’ number. And based on what happened the last time these two teams met, Lattimore might also have some real estate in Evans’ dome.
On top of that, Evans and Tom Brady haven’t been on the same page of late. Although the over has hit on his receiving prop half the time this season, the Tampa wide receiver has gone under this number the last three games. The targets are still there, but they aren’t connecting to the same degree as they did earlier in the season (27 catches on his last 52 targets).
So, the under on that play (60.5) is very much an option, but I like the room this one provides us. Olave hasn’t put up blistering numbers of late either, but he and Andy Dalton are still connecting at a consistent rate (24 catches on his last 36 targets). And while opposing QBs haven’t put up big numbers vs. Tampa of late, an opposing wide out has logged 64 or more yards in each of the Bucs’ last five games and 71-plus in each of their last three.
Brady has hit the over on his passing prop in six of Tampa’s 11 games, but he’s gone under this number six times, too. Two of the times he went under this number were the games surrounding his Week 11 bye, and part of that’s been the result of his aforementioned issues connecting with Evans. While Brady hasn’t gone under this number often at home, he did so the last time he was in Tampa.
Perhaps the most important stat to note: Brady only threw for 190 yards vs. the Saints in Week 2. Between Chris Godwin’s injury and Mike Evans’ ejection, his receiving options were thin. But, them both being available might not mean as much as you’d think in this one. Brady has only gone over this number two times in 11 career games vs. the Saints (including one postseason meeting). And in both instances he went over this number, Brady was visiting New Orleans.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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