Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Week 16 of the NFL season.
Find me on Twitter @Nick_Friar for updates.
Hat tip to fellow DraftKings contributor Geoff Ulrich on this one — he put this on my radar on Wednesday’s edition of The Slate. The number was sub-50 at that point, but my feelings haven’t changed on the play.
Minnesota might get bombarded with brutal weather like the rest of the country, but it doesn’t matter. Let this weekend serve as a reminder: All outdoor sports teams in the north should have a dome.
Quite a few opposing wide receivers have had a field day with the Minnesota secondary. Most of them have been on the outside rather than the slot, but multiple slot receivers have gone over this number vs. the Vikings, too.
As for Slayton specifically, he’s gone under this number in back-to-back games after riding a six-game stretch in which he logged 58 or more yards per week. All told, he’s gone over this number seven times in 11 games. The over on Slayton’s receiving prop has also hit six times in the nine instances it’s been listed this season.
Speaking of places that need a dome —this game opened with a 10-point spread before dipping down to nine points right after Week 15. While this could be the result of the weather, there’s no doubt the market’s behavior has led to this, as well.
The ATS bets for this game have been split 50-50, but the Bears make up a far larger portion of the handle. As of writing, Chicago has gotten 72% of the handle, so the sharps are in on the Bears heavily.
The sharps are also backing the under, which has come down from 45.5 to 40.5 despite the market’s behavior. The public is in heavy on the over, with the under only receiving 38% of the bets. However, the under is getting 47% of the handle. With the under being the sharp play here, Chicago’s large number looks even more appealing.
Couple other things worth noting here: We’re looking at 25 MPH winds in this game, and the Bills are 1-3 ATS in non-conference games.
This is a reasonable number for Tagovailoa against a Packers team that’s on a short week. He’s gone over this mark in half of his games this season. However, he’s gone under this number in Miami’s last two games. Tagovailoa has also gone under this number in three of Miami’s home games.
Now, the over has hit on the Miami QB’s passing prop in nine of his 12 games. And if you factor in the weeks he dealt with injury, the consistency at which the over has hit looks even more impressive. But there has to be a correction at some point.
The weather isn’t expected to be peak Miami conditions. While the wind isn’t as bad as some of these other games at 11 MPH, rain is also expected. On top of that, opposing quarterbacks don’t go over this number vs. the Packers. Kirk Cousins did so in Week 1, then it took all the way until Week 11 for Ryan Tannehill to be the second quarterback to do so. That game vs. the Titans was also on a short week, but it was a TNF meeting after the Packers had played on Sunday. That gap is much more significant than the one Green Bay is dealing with this week — as much as Miami played on Saturday in Week 15.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.