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Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Ravens-Saints.
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Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara over 63.5 rushing yards -125
Although Kamara is coming off an outstanding performance, this is a high number for the New Orleans running back. While he’s gone over the century mark in total yards in each of the last four games, he’s only surpassed this number twice in New Orleans’ last four. That said, he nearly surpassed this number vs. the Raiders in Week 8, finishing with 62 yards. Given the opponent he’s set to face Monday, Kamara is in position to hit the over on his rushing prop for the fifth time in what will be his seventh game of the season.
While Leonard Fournette didn’t go over this number in Week 8, he doesn’t typically get the level of ground work the other running backs Baltimore has struggled with. Four of the last six lead running backs the Ravens have seen went over this number on anywhere from 12 to 22 carries. The two backs who failed to do so put in a lot of work through the air, as well, finishing with 58 (Fournette) and 96 all-purpose yards (Devin Singletary).
Lamar Jackson under 60.5 rushing yards -105
Although he’s only gone over this number four times throughout 2022, Jackson has comfortably surpassed this mark when he’s gone over it throughout the season. He’s also blown past this number every time he’s played on MNF. The over on Jackson’s rushing yards props throughout 2022 is 5-3, and while he’s only gone over this number in half of Baltimore’s games, he’s come three yards shy of the over in two of the four games he went under this mark.
Those facts could easily lead some toward backing the over, but it just makes me suspicious of the number. Sure, the Saints got cooked by Marcus Mariota for 72 rushing yards in Week 1, but Atlanta has been a bit of a surprise for everyone this season. While New Orleans hasn’t seen much in the way of mobile quarterbacks since, they have done a good job slowing down opposing running backs, recently holding Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon under 50 yards rushing. Also, Jackson has gone under this mark in both of Baltimore’s 2022 prime-time games.
Saints +1.5 -105
This number has been trending downward for a bit. But it shouldn’t be with the way the market is behaving. New Orleans has only received 22% of the ATS bets for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, yet this number has been cut in half after being an even three about one week ago. This game’s spread even bottomed out at just one measly point on Sunday. Now, the percentage of the handle isn’t overwhelmingly larger than the percentage of bets, but a positive four-percentage-point difference in this range is significant.
On top of the sharps leaning toward the Saints covering, the under is getting some smart money, too. While making up 51% of the game total bets, the under is getting 56% of the handle — even with the total trickling down from 48 points to 46.5 over the past week. Also, in the two games Rashod Bateman has not logged a snap, the Ravens failed to cover — and they were favored in both of those games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.