Here are my favorite player props for the Week 9 of the 2022 NFL regular season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Week 8 marked the first time in a while Jefferson hasn’t gone over the century mark, but he still went over his receiving yards prop on DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s now done so in five of Minnesota’s seven games this season, and he’s also gone over this number five times throughout 2022.
Now, it’s been a while since an opposing receiver logged 88 or more yards vs. the Commanders. But, Washington has been the beneficiary of facing Sam Ehlinger, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields and Ryan Tannehill the last four weeks. In the four weeks prior to that stretch, each opponent had a wide out go over this number — the Eagles almost saw A.J. Brown do so (85 yards) while DeVonta Smith went for 169 receiving yards.
Kirk Cousins can be a bit all over the place, but he almost always finds a way to feed Jefferson, who’s logged at least 100 yards receiving in two of Minnesota’s three 2022 road games.
This number is fishy. Rodgers has yet to throw for 260 yards all season long, and he’s gone under his passing prop in five of Green Bay’s games this season. On top of that, Allen Lazard (questionable) will be a game-time decision due to a shoulder injury. Also, for all the Lion’s defensive struggles, only three of the seven quarterbacks Detroit has seen this season have gone over this number.
It seems too obvious to take the under here, which is why I like going in the opposite direction. Rodgers may be toast, but one would think his numbers vs. the Lions would be much lower given the stats surrounding this play. Something’s up here (hopefully, that proves to be Green Bay’s pass attack).
Another odd number. Pierce has not gone under this mark once since Week 1, when he was targeted just twice and failed to reel in a single reception. He’s also gone over his DraftKings Sportsbook receiving prop in five of the seven games he’s played.
While some opposing receivers have cooked the Patriots this season, slot receivers haven’t been the ones to cause problems. In fact, New England has largely put the clamps on opposing slots — most notably, Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 5. With Sam Ehlinger showing his preference for Pierce in Week 8, it’d be very on-brand for New England to take that option away for the new Indy QB.
The Cardinals have allowed a pair of opposing receivers to put up good numbers in recent weeks. While their most recent opponents also had dynamic running backs, like Kenneth Walker III is proving to be, the Cardinals have seen what happens when they keep their focus on Seattle’s receiving core. Although that didn’t result in a win last time, holding an opponent to under 20 points is usually a recipe for success — especially for an offense that has been given new life with the reintegration of one of the game’s top pass-catchers.
Lockett has gone under this number 50% of the time this season, but he’s hit the over on his receiving prop in five of Seattle’s eight games. However, he’s failed to log at least 66 yards receiving in each of his last three games — including the Seahawks’ last meeting vs. the Cardinals.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.