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Week 12 in this year’s NFL schedule is Thanksgiving week! It’s time for a feast of football with all 32 NFL teams in play before we wrap up the bye weeks in the next couple of weeks.
As has become the norm, there are three Turkey Day matchups with the Lions and Cowboys hosting the first two games, this year against the Bills and Giants, respectively. The Thanksgiving night game should be a good one too between the Patriots and the Vikings. On Sunday, there are seven games in the early 1:00 p.m. ET window, followed by four late games. The Sunday night game is an NFC matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers, and we close out the week with the Steelers taking on the Colts in Indianapolis.
As you break down all the matchups and get your betting cards ready on DraftKings Sportsbook, take a look at these trends against the spread and totals to help you make the right picks. The lines provided are as of Wednesday morning, and odds and lines are subject to change leading up to kickoff.
Here are some key definitions of acronyms that we’ll use throughout the article:
- SU: Straight Up
- ATS: Against the Spread
- O/U: Over/Under
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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (+9.5; O/U 54)
Bills ATS: 5-5
Bills O/U: 3-7
Bills average total game points: 45.5
Bills as favorite: 7-3 SU/5-4-1 ATS
The Bills were forced to play a home game on the road in Detroit against the Browns due to snow in Buffalo, and they’ll now play a true road game against the Lions on Thanksgiving. After winning SU/ATS over Cleveland, Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games against a team with a losing record and 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Detroit. The under is 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five games on the road, 6-2 in its last 8 games overall and 5-0 in the previous five meetings between these two teams.
Lions ATS: 6-4
Lions O/U: 7-3
Lions average total game points: 53.2
Lions as underdog: 3-5 SU/5-3 ATS
The Lions went on the road and got a nice SU/ATS win in New York against the Giants last week and are now 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games. They are only 0-9-1 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent from the AFC, but they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. The over is 6-0 in Detroit’s last six games following an ATS win, 9-3 in its last 12 games overall and 8-3 in its last 11 games played on a Thursday.
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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10; O/U 45.5)
Giants ATS: 7-3
Giants O/U: 3-7
Giants average total game points: 40.9
Giants as underdog: 5-1 SU/5-1 ATS
The Giants lost SU/ATS at home to the Lions and head to Dallas for a rematch of their Week 3 SU/ATS loss to their division rivals. New York is 1-10 SU/2-9 ATS in its last 11 games against Dallas and just 1-5 ATS in its last six division games overall. The Giants are 5-2 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven games but only 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games. The under is 4-1 in their last five games, 4-1 in their last five road games, and 9-3-2 in their last 14 games against the NFC East. The under is 33-16-2 in the Giants’ last 51 games overall and 9-3-2 in their last 14 against the NFC.
Cowboys ATS: 7-3
Cowboys O/U: 4-6
Cowboys average total game points: 41.8
Cowboys as favorite: 4-1 SU/4-1 ATS
The Cowboys had one of their best wins of the season as they routed the Vikings SU/ATS last week. They are now 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games against the NFC and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. They are 7-2 SU/7-2 ATS in their last nine games and 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS in their last 11 matchups with the Giants. The over is actually 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these two teams and 4-1 in Dallas’ last five Thursday games. However, the under is 6-1 in the Cowboys’ last seven home games and 15-6-1 in their last 22 games overall.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5; O/U 42.5)
Patriots ATS: 6-3-1
Patriots O/U: 4-6
Patriots average total game points: 38.2
Patriots as underdog: 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS
It wasn’t the prettiest performance, but the Patriots won SU/ATS over the Jets last week, improving to 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New England is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams and is 7-0 SU/7-0 ATS in its last seven games played in November. The Patriots are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games. The under is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams and 12-6 in the Patriots’ last 18 road games.
Vikings ATS: 4-6-1
Vikings O/U: 5-5
Vikings average total game points: 46
Vikings as favorite: 7-0 SU/3-3-1 ATS
While the Patriots’ win didn’t get any style points, it was a whole lot better than the Vikings’ brutal SU/ATS loss at home to the Cowboys. Minnesota has been good at bouncing back, though, going 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit loss at home and 45-21 ATS in its last 66 games following a SU loss. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning road record. The over is 6-0 in the Vikings’ last six games following a double-digit loss at home, 7-2 in their last 9 home games and 12-6 in their last 18 games overall.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (+3; O/U 43)
Buccaneers ATS: 3-6-1
Buccaneers O/U: 2-8
Buccaneers average total game points: 36.3
Buccaneers as favorite: 5-5 SU/3-6-1 ATS
The Bucs won SU/ATS in Germany before their bye week but are only 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They are also only 1-8 SU in their last nine games against the AFC North and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. The under is 7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last eight road games against a team with a losing home record and 9-2 in its last 11 against a team with a losing record. The under is also 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Browns ATS: 4-6
Browns O/U: 7-2-1
Browns average total game points: 50.9
Browns as underdog: 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS
The Browns lost SU/ATS against the Bills in Detroit last week and are 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC South but are only 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a SU loss and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. The over is 4-0-1 in Cleveland’s last five home games, 5-1-1 in its last seven games following a SU loss and 7-3 in its last 10 overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (+1.5; O/U 42.5)
Bengals ATS: 7-3
Bengals O/U: 4-5-1
Bengals average total game points: 48
Bengals as favorite: 6-3 SU/6-3 ATS
The Bengals beat the Steelers SU/ATS last week and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against the AFC. They are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0-1 in Cincinnati’s last five games overall, but the under is 8-1-1 in its last 10 vs. the AFC and 5-0 in its last five games against a team with a winning record
Titans ATS: 8-2
Titans O/U: 3-7
Titans average total game points: 37.8
Titans as underdog: 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS
The Titans won SU/ATS against the Packers last Thursday and are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the AFC but are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. the AFC North. The under is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven games and 8-1 in its last nine home games.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13.5; O/U 46.5)
Texans ATS: 4-5-1
Texans O/U: 4-6
Texans average total game points: 38.9
Texans as underdog: 1-8-1 SU/4-5-1 ATS
Houston lost SU/ATS to the Commanders last week and is 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in its last five games. The Texans are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-5 SU in their last six road games. The under is 4-2 in Houston’s last six games and 5-1 in its last six games against the AFC East.
Dolphins ATS: 5-5
Dolphins O/U: 5-5
Dolphins average total game points: 49.3
Dolphins as favorite: 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS
Miami was on its bye week after beating the Browns SU/ATS. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record. They are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall but are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The under is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games after a bye and 4-1 in its last five home games.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-4.5; O/U 39.5)
Bears ATS: 4-6-1
Bears O/U: 7-4
Bears average total game points: 46.8
Bears as underdog: 2-7 SU/4-5 ATS
The Bears lost SU/ATS against the Falcons last week, but the more significant issue coming into this matchup is the health of Justin Fields. Chicago is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games overall and 3-13 in its last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. The over is 5-0 in the Bears’ last five games, 5-0 in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-0 in their last six games following an ATS loss.
Jets ATS: 6-4
Jets O/U: 3-7
Jets average total game points: 38.5
Jets as underdog: 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS
The Jets took a tough loss SU/ATS to the Patriots last week on a punt return for a touchdown after their offense struggled badly, especially in the second half. They are still 5-2 SU/5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss. They are only 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a losing record and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The under is 5-0 in the Jets’ last five games, 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams and 4-1 in the Jets' last five home games.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4; O/U 42)
Falcons ATS: 7-4
Falcons O/U: 6-5
Falcons average total game points: 48.4
Falcons as underdog: 3-5 SU/6-2 ATS
The Falcons beat the Bears SU/ATS last week and will return to their role as the underdog after being the favorite last week. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the NFC. However, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last five overall and 2-5-1 in their last eight against a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams. The under is 20-6 in Atlanta’s last 26 games against a team with a winning record and 8-2 in its last 10 games following a SU win.
Commanders ATS: 6-4-1
Commanders O/U: 4-7
Commanders average total game points: 39.8
Commanders as favorite: 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS
The Commanders won SU/ATS in Houston last week and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against a team with a losing record and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. The under is 8-2 in Washington’s last 10 home games and 7-2 in its last nine games overall.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+2; O/U 36)
Broncos ATS: 3-7
Broncos O/U: 1-9
Broncos average total game points: 31.8
Broncos as favorite: 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS
The Broncos lost SU/ATS to the Raiders last week and are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, but they are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS all-time against the Panthers. The under is 6-0 in Denver’s last six games following a SU loss and 46-21-1 in its last 68 games overall.
Panthers ATS: 5-6
Panthers O/U: 4-7
Panthers average total game points: 42.1
Panthers as underdog: 3-5 SU/5-3 ATS
Carolina lost SU to the Ravens last week but covered ATS and is actually 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The Panthers are only 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and 9-24 ATS in their last 33 against a team with a losing record. The under is 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games overall and 4-1 in their last five home games.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4; O/U 43.5)
Ravens ATS: 5-5
Ravens O/U: 3-7
Ravens average total game points: 44.7
Ravens as favorite: 6-2 SU/3-5 ATS
After beating the Panthers SU but failing to cover ATS, the Ravens head to Jacksonville, but they are only 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with the Jaguars. They are also only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record, but they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last seven games and 14-6 in its last 20 road games.
Jaguars ATS: 3-7
Jaguars O/U: 4-6
Jaguars average total game points: 42.1
Jaguars as underdog: 3-4 SU/3-4 ATS
The Jaguars are back from their bye week after sliding to 1-6 SU/1-6 ATS in their seven most recent contests after a SU/ATS loss to the Chiefs. Jacksonville is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a bye week, but they are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss. The under is 4-0 in Jacksonville’s last four games and 11-1 in its last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5; O/U 47.5)
Chargers ATS: 7-3
Chargers O/U: 5-5
Chargers average total game points: 48.5
Chargers as favorite: 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS
The Chargers covered ATS but lost SU to the Chiefs last Sunday night and are now 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They are 39-19-3 ATS in their last 61 road games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Chargers are also 4-1 SU/4-1 ATS in their last five games against Arizona. The over is 11-5 in the Chargers' last 16 games and 7-2 in their last nine against the NFC West.
Cardinals ATS: 5-6
Cardinals O/U: 6-4-1
Cardinals average total game points: 48.7
Cardinals as underdog: 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS
The Cardinals lost SU/ATS to the 49ers in Mexico on Monday Night Football. At home, they have lost 10 of their last 11 SU and have only gone 2-9 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss but only 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. The over is 5-0 in Arizona's last five games overall and 5-2 in its last seven home games.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5; O/U 47.5)
Raiders ATS: 4-6
Raiders O/U: 5-4-1
Raiders average total game points: 46.7
Raiders as underdog: 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS
The Raiders beat the Broncos SU/ATS last week. They are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record but only 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. They are also just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall. The under is 7-2 in Las Vegas’ last nine road games and 5-2 in its last seven games when playing as the underdog.
Seahawks ATS: 6-4
Seahawks O/U: 5-4
Seahawks average total game points: 49.8
Seahawks as favorite: 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
The Seahawks are favored for just the third time this season, as they come off a bye after losing in Germany to the Buccaneers. Seattle is 4-1 SU/4-1 ATS in its last five games and 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The under is 4-1 in the Seahawks’ last five games following a bye week and 7-1 in their last eight games in November.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5; O/U 44)
Rams ATS: 2-7-1
Rams O/U: 4-6
Rams average total game points: 39.5
Rams as underdog: 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS
The Rams went on the road and lost SU/ATS against the Saints, and QB Matthew Stafford was forced to return to the NFL concussion protocol. They’ll face a tough task on the road against the Chiefs and are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 1-6 SU/0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Chiefs, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. The under is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ last five road games and 5-0 in its last five games against an AFC opponent.
Chiefs ATS: 4-6
Chiefs O/U: 5-5
Chiefs average total game points: 53.3
Chiefs as favorite: 7-1 SU/3-5 ATS
The Chiefs won SU last week but lost ATS against the Chargers. They are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Kansas City is also only 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games. The under is 5-1 in Kansas City’s last six home games and 5-2 in its last seven games following a SU win.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5; O/U 43)
Saints ATS: 4-7
Saints O/U: 6-5
Saints average total game points: 46.9
Saints as underdog: 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS
After winning SU/ATS over the Rams last week, the Saints are 3-7 SU/4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. They have gone 38-18 ATS in their last 56 road games but are only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last six games against a team with a winning record and 15-7 in its last 22 games following a SU win.
49ers ATS: 5-5
49ers O/U: 4-6
49ers average total game points: 40.9
49ers as favorite: 5-3 SU/ 4-4 ATS
The 49ers won SU/ATS over the Cardinals on Monday Night Football and are now 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against the NFC. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five against a team with a losing record and 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The under is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last six home games, 6-1 in its last seven games following an ATS win and 13-5 in its last 18 games overall.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7; O/U 46)
Packers ATS: 4-7
Packers O/U: 5-6
Packers average total game points: 40.5
Packers as underdog: 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS
The Packers are in prime time for a second straight week as they visit the Eagles on Sunday Night Football after losing SU/ATS to the Titans on Thursday Night Football last week. Green Bay is 2-6 SU/2-6 ATS in its last eight games and is also only 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. The Packers are 6-2 SU/6-2 ATS in their last eight head-to-head matchups with the Eagles, but they are only 3-6 ATS in their last nine games against an NFC opponent. The under is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last five road games and 6-2 in its last eight games following a SU loss.
Eagles ATS: 5-5
Eagles O/U: 6-4
Eagles average total game points: 44.6
Eagles as favorite: 9-1 SU/5-5 ATS
The Eagles escaped with a SU win but lost ATS against the Colts last week. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record but only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in Philly’s last four home games, 4-1 in its last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight games against a team with a losing record.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5; O/U 39)
Steelers ATS: 4-4-1
Steelers O/U: 4-6
Steelers average total game points: 41.4
Steelers as underdog: 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS
The Steelers Lost SU/ATS to the Bengals last week and will travel to Indy to face the Colts on Monday Night Football. While they are only 2-7 SU in their last nine games, they are 7-0 SU in their last seven games against the Colts. Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The under is 6-1 in the Steelers’ last seven games following an ATS loss.
Colts ATS: 5-6
Colts O/U: 2-9
Colts average total game points: 35.7
Colts as favorite: 1-3-1 SU/1-4 ATS
Last week, the Colts played well against the Eagles and won ATS but lost SU after a late touchdown. The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss but only 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against the AFC North. The under is 14-2 in the Colts’ last 16 games, 6-1 in their last seven games at home and 6-1 in their last seven matchups with the Steelers.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.