Here are my DraftKings Sportsbook picks for 49ers-Cardinals.
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The over has hit on McCaffrey’s receiving prop six times in his nine games this season. However, he’s only gone over this number five times. That last stat makes me like this play more since the mark has been more of a coin toss for the San Francisco running back. Although, it hasn’t really been of late; McCaffrey has gone over this number two times in the three games he’s played for his new team. Also, one of the times he went over this number with Carolina in 2022 was the Panthers’ game against this same Cardinals defense.
Now, opposing running backs haven’t peppered the over on this number vs. Arizona. In fact, McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are the only two to do so. However, three other running backs have logged at least 30 receiving yards vs. the Cardinals. And while McCaffrey does a lot of damage in the passing game, Arizona made a point to limit his production on the ground last time. Again, he was with a different team that time, but the Cardinals will have to place some level of focus on San Fran’s ground game with the threat Elijah Mitchell also poses. If they’re effective in their approach to that facet of the game — which Arizona doesn’t necessarily need to be for this play to come through — Kyle Shanahan will use the alternate route to get McCaffrey involved.
While the spread has been a bit all over the place because of Kyler Murray’s status (not expected to play), the total’s movement has been a bit more reasonable throughout. It opened at 45 points about two weeks before the matchup, then dropped to 44 around one week later before dipping down to 43.5 around 24 hours later. It wasn’t until Week 11’s Sunday games that it reached 43.5 before bottoming out at 42.5 and bouncing back up to 43.5.
All told, a 1.5-point dip from where it opened, as opposed to the 4.5-point increase on the spread. With that being the case, the market numbers are a bit more trustworthy. The over has received 70% of the bets as of writing, but the under has gotten 31% of the handle. Not a huge split, but enough to help push me in a direction I was already leaning.
The over is 5-4 in Arizona games, with four of those overs coming in the Cardinals’ last four games. At some point, that run has to end. Given the under is 6-3 in San Francisco games, that streak could very well snap on Monday.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.