Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook plays for Game 4 of 2022 World Series.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
While it’s not been consistent which team is piling on the runs, the first three games of the World Series have seen at least one team score early and often each night. Aaron Nola knows that all too well after getting rocked by the Astros in Game 1.
Now, the Phillies were able to work past the right-hander’s struggles to take the initial series lead. But there’s no indication he’ll get back on track in Game 3, as much as he’s starting on normal rest. After making a pair of lights out performances to start Philly’s postseason run, he’s gotten smoked for 11 runs over his last two outings, which have spanned nine innings. Also, he failed to make it out of the fifth inning in those two rough starts.
On the other side, I do think Cristian Javier will pitch well enough for Houston to win, but I don’t expect him to be untouchable. He was lights out vs. the Yankees in the ALCS — which happened to be his first career postseason start — and he was pitching very well coming into the postseason. Still, Philly prefers right-handed pitching and should be able to scratch one or two across against Javier in the first five frames. And again, the Phillies might not need to even score one for this play to hit.
Five Phillies took part in an impromptu home run derby in the middle of Game 3 on Tuesday, and Marsh was one of them. His 2-for-3 performance only brought his postseason average up to .206, but that number was dragged down heavily by his rough NLCS. Outside of the four games he took part in throughout that battle vs. the Padres, Philly’s No. 9 hitter is 7-for-21 with at least one hit the five of the eight games he has an at-bat outside of the NLCS this postseason.
On top of all that, Marsh is 4-for-7 in his career vs. Javier. Marsh also had a 25.8% line-drive rate against right-handed pitching throughout the season and posted a 36.9% hard-contact rate against them at home.
Nola might make some adjustments, but I don’t trust him at all after he failed to do so between his rough NLCS start and Game 1 of the World Series. Sure, he dominated the Astros when he saw them right before the postseason, but they clearly went to school on him in a similar fashion to what Philly did with Lance McCullers — who did well vs. Philadelphia when he saw them in the regular season. Conversely, most of Philly’s lineup isn’t familiar with Javier. And with both of these bullpens having the capability of being lock-down, this game should be decided by what happens when these two starters are on the mound.
Also, as we all know, the Astros were shut out in Game 3. That only happened to them 11 times over the regular season. In the games that followed those lackluster offensive performances, the Astros went 8-3. Meanwhile, the Phillies shut out opponents 15 times this season. In the games that followed those strong pitching performances, they went 7-8.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.