After 10 weeks of NFL action, every team has at least one win and every team has at least one loss. Not only did the last undefeated team go down in Week 10, but the NFL also made its regular-season debut in Germany. While there were plenty of fun games last week, Week 11 shapes up to be another great one with some converging trends and storylines to follow and enjoy.
This week, the action gets underway on Thursday Night Football with a good matchup between the Titans and the Packers. There are eight games in the early 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday window, followed by three late games, including a big NFC showdown between the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings and the 6-3 Dallas Cowboys. The Sunday night game is an AFC West contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, and we close out the week with another matchup from the West, where the 49ers take on the Cardinals in Arizona on Monday Night Football.
As you break down all the matchups and get your betting cards ready on DraftKings Sportsbook, take a look at these trends against the spread and totals to help you make the right picks. The lines provided are as of Wednesday morning, and odds and lines are subject to change leading up to kickoff.
Here are some key definitions of acronyms that we’ll use throughout the article:
- SU: Straight Up
- ATS: Against the Spread
- O/U: Over/Under
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Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3; O/U 42)
Titans ATS: 7-2
Titans O/U: 2-7
Titans average total game points: 37.1
Titans as underdog: 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS
The Titans sit atop the AFC South after beating the Broncos in Week 10. Since starting 0-2 SU/0-2 ATS, they have gone 6-1 SU/7-0 ATS in their last seven games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Tennessee has also gone 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in the past six meetings between these two teams, with the over going 6-1 in their past seven meetings. On the other hand, the under is 6-0 in the Titans’ last six games overall and 11-1 in their last 12 games on grass.
Packers ATS: 4-6
Packers O/U: 4-6
Packers average total game points: 40.1
Packers as favorite: 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS
Green Bay bounced back from five consecutive SU losses with a huge home overtime win vs. the Cowboys last week. The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 8-3 in the Packers’ last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record and 4-1 in their last five games following a SU win.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3; O/U 50)
Bears ATS: 4-5-1
Bears O/U: 6-4
Bears average total game points: 46.4
Bears as underdog: 2-6 SU/4-4 ATS
Chicago looked good again last week, but they lost SU and ATS to fall to 1-6 SU/3-4 ATS over their seven most recent contests. The Bears are 11-4 SU/9-2-1 in their past 12 vs. the Falcons but just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games against the NFC. The over is 4-0 in the Bears’ last for games, 6-2 in their past eight road games and 22-8 in their last 30 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Falcons ATS: 6-4
Falcons O/U: 5-5
Falcons average total game points: 48.2
Falcons as favorite: 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS
The Falcons lost ATS for the second time this season as the favorite last week vs. the Panthers, but they’ll be favored again this week. They are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games and 4-8 SU in their last 12 games overall, but they have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against an NFC opponent. The under is 5-2 in Atlanta’s last seven games and 7-3 in its last 10 home games.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-9.5; O/U 46.5)
Browns ATS: 4-5
Browns O/U: 6-2-1
Browns average total game points: 50.5
Browns as underdog: 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS
After losing SU/ATS vs. the Dolphins last week, the Browns are 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in their six most recent games. They are just 1-7 SU in their last eight road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against an AFC East opponent. The under is 5-2 in Cleveland’s last seven road games and 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Bills ATS: 4-5
Bills O/U: 2-7
Bills average total game points: 44.6
Bills as favorite: 6-3 SU/4-4-1 ATS
Buffalo is 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS in its last six games vs. Cleveland. The Bills are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games and 7-1 SU in their last eight games at home. They’ll look to bounce back from a tough loss SU/ATS vs. the Vikings as they welcome in the Browns. The under is 5-0 in the Bills’ last five games against the AFC and 11-4 in their last 15 games following a SU loss.
Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5; O/U 44.5)
Eagles ATS: 5-4
Eagles O/U: 6-3
Eagles average total game points: 45.9
Eagles as favorite: 8-1 SU/5-4 ATS
The Eagles took their first SU loss of the season on Monday Night Football vs. the Commanders and will look to get back on track when they visit the Colts. The Eagles are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. the Colts, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game and just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. However, they are 6-1 SU in their last seven road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. The over has hit in four straight Eagles games and is 21-7 in the Eagles’ last 28 road games against a team with a losing home record. The over is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Colts ATS: 4-6
Colts O/U: 2-8
Colts average total game points: 36
Colts as underdog: 3-2 SU/3-2 ATS
The Colts got a SU/ATS win in Jeff Saturday’s first game as head coach by knocking off the Raiders in Vegas behind strong showings from Matt Ryan and Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games overall and 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is 13-3 in the Colts' last 16 games overall, 5-1 in their last six home games and 5-0 in their last five games against a team with a winning record.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3; O/U 39)
Jets ATS: 6-3
Jets O/U: 3-6
Jets average total game points: 41.4
Jets as underdog: 5-3 SU/5-3 ATS
The Jets and Patriots both return from their bye week for this rematch of New England’s SU/ATS win in Week 8. The Jets beat the Bills SU/ATS before the bye and are 5-1 SU/5-1 ATS in their six most recent contests. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The under is 4-0 in the Jets’ last four games and 6-1 in their last seven games following an ATS victory.
Patriots ATS: 5-3-1
Patriots O/U: 4-5
Patriots average total game points: 41
Patriots as favorite: 4-1 SU/3-1-1 ATS
The Patriots are 11-0 in their last 11 home games vs. the Jets and 10-0 in their last 10 meetings overall. They went 5-1 ATS in their last six games before the bye week and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week. The under is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five games following a bye week and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings between these teams.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-4; O/U 38.5)
Rams ATS: 2-6-1
Rams O/U: 3-6
Rams average total game points: 38.6
Rams as underdog: 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS
The Rams were without Matthew Stafford (concussion) last week in their loss vs. Arizona and lost Cooper Kupp (ankle) for a significant time in that game. They are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in L.A.’s last four road games, 20-7 in its last 27 games following an ATS loss and 8-3 in its last 11 overall.
Saints ATS: 3-7
Saints O/U: 5-5
Saints average total game points: 46.9
Saints as favorite: 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS
The Saints and are just 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the Rams, but the home team has gone 8-1 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings. The Saints lost SU/ATS vs. Pittsburgh and are 1-4 SU/1-4 ATS in their five most recent games. The under is 7-3 in New Orleans’ last 10 home games and 8-2 in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3; O/U 46.5)
Lions ATS: 5-4
Lions O/U: 6-3|
Lions average total game points: 53.6
Lions as underdog: 2-5 SU/4-3 ATS
The Lions have won back-to-back games SU/ATS coming in as an underdog over the Packers and Bears. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. the Giants in New York and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games, but they are only 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall and 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road. The over is 8-3 in Detroit’s last 11 games and 7-2 in its last nine games against the NFC.
Giants ATS: 7-2
Giants O/U: 2-7
Giants average total game points: 40
Giants as favorite: 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS
The Giants are 5-1 SU/5-1 ATS in their last six games overall after beating the Texans last week. They are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games against a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in the Giants’ last seven home games against a team with a losing road record, 20-6 in their last 26 against a team with a losing record overall and 34-16-2 in their last 52 games overall.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-11.5; O/U 43)
Panthers ATS: 4-6
Panthers O/U: 4-6
Panthers average total game points: 44.7
Panthers as underdog: 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS
The Panthers won SU/ATS last Thursday and have now claimed ATS victories in three of their past four games. However, they are just 3-14 SU/4-13 ATS in their past 17 games and 0-8 SU/1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. The over is 5-0 in Carolina’s last five road games and 4-1 in its last five games after an ATS win.
Ravens ATS: 5-4
Ravens O/U: 3-6
Ravens average total game points: 47.9
Ravens as favorite: 5-2 SU/3-4 ATS
Baltimore is back from its bye week and has four SU wins in its last five games to move atop the AFC North. They are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against the NFC South but only 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. The under is 5-1 in Baltimore’s last six games overall and 5-1 in its last six home games, as well.
Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (+2.5; O/U 40.5)
Commanders ATS: 5-4-1
Commanders O/U: 4-6
Commanders average total game points: 40.4
Commanders as favorite: 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS
The Commanders handed the Eagles their first SU loss of the season on Monday Night Football and are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. They are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win but only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on Sunday after a Monday night game. The under is 6-2 in Washington’s last eight games and 5-1 in its last six games against an AFC South opponent.
Texans ATS: 4-4-1
Texans O/U: 4-5
Texans average total game points: 39.6
Texans as underdog: 1-7-1 SU/4-4-1 ATS
Houston continues to struggle and is just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in its last eight games. The Texans are 1-10-1 SU in their last 12 games at home and 0-9 SU in their last nine games against an NFC opponent. The over is 4-1 in the Texans’ last five games against a team with a losing record and 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5; O/U 41.5)
Raiders ATS: 3-6
Raiders O/U: 5-3-1
Raiders average total game points: 47.7
Raiders as underdog: 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS
After losing SU/ATS vs. the Colts, the Raiders are 0-3 SU/ATS in their last three games. In their last 10 games, they’re just 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS, but they have been good lately vs. Denver, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, including five consecutive SU wins. The over is 5-2 in the Raiders’ last seven games and 5-1 in their last six games against the AFC.
Broncos ATS: 3-6
Broncos O/U: 1-8
Broncos average total game points: 31.2
Broncos as favorite: 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS
The Broncos are just 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in their last six games after losing SU/ATS last week vs. the Titans. They have also dropped six consecutive games SU against the AFC West and are just 4-9 ATS in their previous 13 games. In the Broncos’ favor, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in Denver’s last four home games, 38-16-1 in its last 55 against the AFC and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5; O/U 47.5)
Cowboys ATS: 6-3
Cowboys O/U: 4-5
Cowboys average total game points: 41.6
Cowboys as underdog: 3-2 SU/3-2 ATS
Even after losing SU/ATS to the Packers last week, the Cowboys are 6-2 SU/6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 against the NFC, but it is also just 7-15 ATS in its last 22 against a team with a winning record. The under is 11-5-1 in the Cowboys’ last 17 games against the NFC and 14-6-1 in their last 21 games overall.
Vikings ATS: 4-4-1
Vikings O/U: 5-4
Vikings average total game points: 46.3
Vikings as favorite: 7-0 SU/3-3-1 ATS
Minnesota got a huge win SU/ATS in the game of the year (so far) vs. the Bills and has won seven consecutive games SU and three of the last four ATS. The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games at home and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games when playing at home vs. Dallas. The over is 7-1 in the Vikings’ last eight home games and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+5; O/U 41)
Bengals ATS: 6-3
Bengals O/U: 3-5-1
Bengals average total game points: 45.9
Bengals as favorite: 5-3 SU/5-3 ATS
The Bengals return from their bye week to take on their division rivals. After starting 0-2 SU/0-2 ATS, they have turned things around and gone 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS in their last seven contests. They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against the AFC. However, they are just 3-12 SU in their last 15 games vs. Pittsburgh. The over is 3-0-1 in Cincinnati’s four most recent games, but longer-term trends favor the under, which has gone 8-0-1 in its last nine against the AFC and 37-18-3 in its last 58 road games.
Steelers ATS: 4-4-1
Steelers O/U: 3-6
Steelers average total game points: 38.6
Steelers as underdog: 2-5 SU/3-3-1 ATS
Pittsburgh got the SU/ATS win last week vs. the Saints but is still just 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. They have gone 22-10-1 ATS in their past 33 games vs. the Bengals. The under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last five games overall, 7-1 in its last eight home games and 6-3 in the last nine head-to-head matchups between these two teams.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5; O/U 50)
Chiefs ATS: 4-5
Chiefs O/U: 4-5
Chiefs average total game points: 52.9
Chiefs as favorite: 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS
The Chiefs are back in prime time for this Sunday Night Football divisional matchup vs. the Chargers. The Chiefs have won 14 of their past 17 meetings SU but have only gone 1-4 ATS in their past four head-to-head matchups. Kansas City has also won seven consecutive divisional games SU and is 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 road games against a team with a winning home record despite going 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the AFC. The over is 7-1 in Kansas City’s last eight road games.
Chargers ATS: 6-3
Chargers O/U: 4-5
Chargers average total game points: 47.5
Chargers as underdog: 0-2 SU/2-0 ATS
The Chargers have only been underdogs twice this season, losing both games SU but making them close enough to win ATS. That was the case in last week’s six-point road loss to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. They’ll be back in the SNF spotlight for this matchup but are only 21-44-1 ATS in their last 66 home games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. The over is 9-2 in the Chargers’ last 11 games on field turf and 8-2 in their last 10 games following a SU loss.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5; O/U 44)
49ers ATS: 4-5
49ers O/U: 3-6
49ers average total game points: 40.1
49ers as favorite: 4-3 SU/ 3-4 ATS
The 49ers come off their Sunday Night Football SU win with another primetime matchup as they visit the Cardinals. While they are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games, they are only 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. the Cardinals. In better news for 49ers supporters, they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 Monday games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC. The under is 13-4 in San Francisco’s last 17 games and 6-2 in its last eight road games.
Cardinals ATS: 5-5
Cardinals O/U: 5-4-1
Cardinals average total game points: 48.8
Cardinals as underdog: 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS
The Cardinals beat the Rams SU/ATS even though they didn’t have Kyler Murray (hamstring) last week. They are only 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at home and 5-11 SU in their last 16 games overall. In sharp contrast to the Niners, the Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Monday games and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against the NFC West. The over is 4-0 in Arizona’s last four games, but the under is 9-1 in its last 10 Monday games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.