Here are my favorite player props for the Week 5 of the 2022 NFL regular season.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
As long as D’Andre Swift is out and Williams is healthy, this prop is going to be worth consideration — especially when it’s sub-20. Detroit likes to utilize the ground attack, and this backfield is all Williams’ until after the upcoming bye.
Now, the Patriots have been tough on opposing backs. No running back has a touchdown against them — be it through the air or on the ground. (Still, backing Williams to score a TD at -105 is worth considering again this week.) Moreover, only one running back has gone over this prop — A.J. Dillon. Aaron Jones (16) almost did so in Week 4, too.
Like Green Bay, Miami also has a shared backfield, which is why Chase Edmonds (12) and Raheem Mostert (five) weren’t even close to this number in Week 1. Najee Harris (15) came two carries short in Week 2, and Pittsburgh has all kinds of offensive line problems. That leaves the Ravens, who only just got J.K. Dobbins (seven) back when they saw New England — never mind Lamar Jackson rushing the ball 11 times himself.
All that said, opposing running back groups have gone over this number three times against the Patriots this season. The one exception was Baltimore, who also crushed this number if you factor in Jackson.
Also worth noting: Opposing running backs have put together 264 yards on 46 carries over the last two weeks.
We’re laying some juice, but it’s worth it with the way Mayfield has looked to start 2022. Somehow, he only has three interceptions through four games, and two of them came last week against a less-than-stellar Cardinals defense. Still, he’s clearly prone to making mistakes, and he’ll face a secondary that’s taken advantage of struggling quarterbacks.
The 49ers have gotten a look at Justin Fields, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. Not exactly a great bunch in 2022, yet Mayfield will still be the least promising QB San Fran has run into. Somehow, Wilson was the only QB the 49ers didn’t pick off.
As for the two weeks Mayfield didn’t throw an interception: The two teams he saw (Giants and Saints) have combined for one interception this season, and it didn’t come until Week 4.
Burrow has gone over this number three times in four chances this season. But, he’s only gone over it in one of Cincy’s two road contests so far, and the one in which he did was a 275-yard performance — he just barely squeaked by. All that being the case only makes this number more appealing. Based on what he’s done so far, Burrow’s passing yards prop for Week 5 is in the right ballpark based on how he’s performed.
This is where Baltimore’s defense comes in.
In the early going, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 328 passing yards per game vs. the Ravens. The only QB to go under that number, oddly enough, was Josh Allen in Week 4. But his 213 yards on 19-for-36 passing came in a game which weather made it difficult to accomplish much through the air. Outside of that, Baltimore hasn’t surrendered fewer than 300 passing yards to an opposing QB this season.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.