Let’s dive into some NFL Week 5 plays on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Almost all of my football futures and week-to-week plays will be posted in article form, but as always follow along on Twitter, as some will just be posted here — @julianedlow.
SF/KC Moneyline Parlay (-122) — 1.5-units
Based on numbers as I write this, a six-point teaser priced at -120 would lose if the Chiefs (-7) happened to win by just one point on MNF, so I’m laying an extra two cents on the ML parlay.
The Panthers have been just atrocious so far this season, and I don’t see how Baker Mayfield and this offense are going to get right against an elite Niners defense. Look for San Fran to dominate defensively, which has been key for them so far this season. The offense is capable enough, just run the ball and find ways to get Deebo Samuel involved. Carolina will find ways to beat itself.
The 1-3 Raiders are probably better than their record, but I do think they are a poorly coached team with many flaws on defense. Back on primetime at home at Arrowhead, I don’t see this being much of a letdown for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, following a SNF beatdown of the Buccaneers. Kansas City beatdown Vegas in both matchups last season — 48-9 at home and 41-14 on the road.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Jeff Wilson Rushing Yards OVER 67.5 (-115) — 1.5-units
This one ties right into the Niners’ leg of the parlay. Since Elijah Mitchell went down in Week 1, Wilson has been leading the San Francisco backfield, topping this number in all three games as the starter. He finished with 18-84-0 in Week 2, 12-75-0 in Week 3 and then 18-74-1 in the MNF win over the Rams. Carolina ranks 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 134 — a number that rises to 144.3 at home. Game script as a near touchdown favorite obviously helps the game script here as well. 4for4’s football projections site has Wilson at 90.9 rushing yards this week.
Other Potential Plays
As for teasers, I really like the Bucs at -2.5, but the way the number is moving I don’t think we’ll see that again. If we do, I’ll add that as a teaser leg. Good spot for Tom Brady off consecutive losses, while selling high on the Falcons.
Teddy Bridgewater is as serviceable a backup as you can find, and also an insane 24-6 ATS on the road in his career. If we see Miami -3, I’ll be tempted to add them to my card.
Chris Raybon was my guest on Unreasonable Odds this week, and he gave out the under 44 in Bears at Vikings. I like the spot a lot, with Minnesota returning home from a London trip last week, and the Bears simply not scoring points. Justin Fields is 10-4 to the under in his starts, and as Raybon pointed out, he’s 5-0 to the under when the total is higher that 44. Might be an add for me.
Otherwise a pretty short card for NFL Week 5.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.