A couple of teams off to disappointing starts meet here on TNF to kickoff NFL Week 5. Let’s take a look at some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook that we can consider putting on our betting card.
I lean to Denver here at home, especially with Jonathan Taylor ruled out for the Colts. But I can’t trust either of these teams right now, so I’m just going to focus on some smaller plays on player props that standout to me in this one.
Hines is the pass-catching back for the Colts, even when Taylor is gobbling up snaps in the backfield. He hauled in 15-of-17 targets in the first three games of the season, before being held to just two receptions in Week 4. In those first three games, Hines was able to cash the over on 3.5 receptions in each game, seeing no fewer than five targets in any game.
The Broncos are decent at defending RBs in the passing game, but did allow five receptions to Josh Jacobs in Week 4. Look for Hines to bounce-back here in the passing game, especially since the Colts don’t have much of a choice playing without Taylor. Hines will see increased snaps.
Sutton has been a go-to-guy for Russell Wilson in his short stint with the Broncos, and the two have had a decent connection downfield. Sutton stayed under this number in the loss in Las Vegas on Sunday, but went over each of the first three games of the season with some decent margin — 30 yards in Week 1, 35 in Week 2 and 34 in Week 3.
The Colts seem to be a perfect matchup here. Indy has given up a long reception of 42 yards in Week 1, 26 in Week 2 and 53 in Week 3 (while allowing three other receptions of 24 of more yards in Week 3). Week 4 was the first time holding an opponent under a long reception of 23.5, and the Titans landed on 23 in a game they only attempted 21 passes for 137 yards.
With Javonte Williams also out for the season now, look for Denver to focus on the passing game and break one off to Sutton.
Williams’ injury playing into the passing game also pushes me towards this prop. Wilson threw just two touchdowns in the first three games of the season combined, but I think we should start to see Russell Wilson bounce-back a but. No, he’s not the old Russ, but he’s capable of throwing two touchdowns against this Indy defense.
Wilson did toss a pair of touchdowns on Sunday in Las Vegas, so it was nice to see him get there in a game. The Colts have allowed multi-touchdown games to three quarterbacks so far this season — Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence and Ryan Tannehill. Conveniently, Patrick Mahomes is the only QB not to get over the 1.5 mark against them.
With a focus on the passing game and a good matchup, I like Russ at plus money here.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.