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MLB Picks for October 5: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for October 5.

The final day of the regular season is here, and it looks like it could be a weird one. Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook plays fro the final day for the 2022 MLB regular season.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

Tigers +125

Marco Gonzales is on the bump for Seattle Wednesday. He’s likely to be the odd man out of the rotation for the Mariners, whether they go all the way or get bounced in the Wild Card round. So, they’re likely to stretch him out a bit and give the bullpen some rest.

That plays well for Detroit, who has a .174 ISO against lefties since September 1. Moreover, a lot of that success has come on the road (.207 ISO).

While Tyler Alexander isn’t a pitcher you typically want to back, the Mariners haven’t been hitting lefties well lately (.151 ISO since September 1). Alexander is coming off a rough start, but he’d churned out a few quality outings before that tough showing. He has a chance to end the season on a positive note with the Mariners likely to rest some of their big bats.

Javier Baez over 1.5 total bases +110

Baez has been cooking since the start of September. While he’s still striking out his share, he’s posted a 41.2% fly-ball rate and hard-contact rate against lefties during that span. With Gonzales being far from a strikeout-pitcher, Baez is in position to add to his extra-base hits total against the Seattle lefty (2-for-8 with a double and home run). Possibly getting a third look at Gonzales could prove helpful, too.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

SG Parlay: Merrill Kelly 5+ strikeouts and Corbin Burnes 7+ strikeouts +115

Now, the Kelly portion of this bet is my favorite part of this play. His straight-up strikeout prop is 4.5, but it’s -170 to get the over. Very much a worthwhile solo play if you’re willing to lay the juice. The Brewers have a 25.2% strikeout rate against righties since September 1, and Kelly punched out seven the last time he saw them.

With Burnes, we’re going a slight tick down from his straight-up strikeout prop, but he’s got a little extra incentive to go off after scuffling last he saw the Diamondbacks. While righties are the preferred opponents for Arizona hitters, they’re also among the top 10 in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since September 1 (24.4%).

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is dk-nfriar) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.