One of my favorite parts of betting throughout any sports season is that it’s not just about the given games on that day/week. With the growth of betting over the years, and the creative markets posted on DraftKings Sportsbook, we can keep betting the futures market throughout the duration of the season. With that in mind, this article will highlight some of the most notable movement within the futures market (whether it be team or player related) after each week of games. Here are some markets to keep an eye on following the Week 4 slate.
The Eagles were one of the most popular preseason bets, and it looks like bettors are going to be spot-on about them. I wrote them up before the season as one of the five win totals that moved the most from open to Week 1, opening at an insane O8.5 (+100) and entering Week 1 at O9.5 (-155). The juice on that 9.5 appears to be worth the squeeze, as the current win total number sits at O13.5 (+100). We’re only four weeks into the season, and the 4-0 Eagles find their win total up five victories from where it opened.
As you’d imagine, the rest of the markets have moved accordingly. Once +250 to win the NFC East, Philly entered Week 1 at +140 and was -140 following Week 1 — which I played in my best bets article. The Eagles are now -300 to win the division.
Prior to Week 1, the Eagles were +2500 to win the Super Bowl and +1000 to win the NFC. Those odds have shifted to +800 and +300 respectively. Prior to Week 4, DraftKings Sportsbook opened the markets to finish the top-seed in each conference. The Eagles were +200 favorites for the No. 1 seed. Following another win, the Eagles are now +120. Philly is a road favorite in Arizona in Week 5.
This is going to be the most compelling award in the NFL from a betting standpoint, and we discuss it in this article every week. It’s been all about rising and falling skill players thus far, but Week 4 gave us some major news in this market.
Kenny Pickett came on in the second half to replace Mitch Trubisky as the QB of the Steelers, and has been named the starter moving forward. Pickett didn’t put up eye-popping numbers, in fact, he threw three interceptions. But he did lead the team to a comeback and scored two rushing touchdowns (some questionable coaching late led to a loss).
Pickett is currently +1000 to win OROY, and probably worth considering as a play. Sure, he was +1500 prior to Week 4, but we’re still getting value based on his preseason price of +850. As the lone starting QB, there’s value here — especially considering a couple of wins in a row for the Titans makes Malik Willis less likely to play anytime soon.
As for the other skill guys, Drake London finally slowed down, and moved down the board to +700. He sits behind Romeo Doubs, who moved slightly up from +800 to +700, Dameon Pierce and Chris Olave. Doubs hauled in another touchdown from Aaron Rodgers, and just barely missed a second one for a game winner.
Olave was +500 entering Week 4, and while his odds haven’t changed, the way the board has shifted makes him the current favorite. Olave had his worse yardage game since Week 1 with Jameis Winston out, but did catch his first NFL touchdown from Andy Dalton on Sunday in London.
Since Pierce’s weird MIA in Week 1, Houston has finally decided to give him a heavy workload. In Weeks 2 and 3 combined, the former Gator rushed for a 35-149-1 line. He broke out in Week 4 against the Chargers, finishing with a 14-131-1 line. His workload should keep him in play here. When Pierce earned the starting role, he was bet down from +1700 to +900 preseason, but his slow start had him at +1000 prior to Week 4. Pierce now sits behind only Olave at +650.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.