There are just two days left in the MLB regular season, and there are tons of games to choose from on Tuesday. All 30 teams are scheduled to take the field, including three doubleheaders. Overall, it’s one of the busiest days of the entire season, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market.
The Pick: Tigers ML (+140)
The Mariners and Tigers will play a doubleheader on Tuesday, and the Mariners are in pretty good shape to secure the No. 2 Wild Card spot in the American League. They currently hold a 1.5-game lead over the Rays, and they’re two games up in the loss column. That said, the Rays do own the head-to-head tiebreak, so the Mariners’ magic number to clinch that spot is still two games.
However, you could argue the third Wild Card spot is actually more desirable. Instead of having to play the red-hot Blue Jays in the first round, the No. 3 team gets a matchup vs. the Guardians. They also then get the Yankees in the ALDS as opposed to the Astros.
With that in mind, don’t be surprised if the Mariners and Rays aren’t chomping at the bit to win their final games.
Seattle will employ a bullpen game in the first leg of their doubleheader. Chris Flexen will make the start, and he’s pitched to a 4.55 xERA this season. Seattle’s bullpen is good as a whole — they rank seventh in bullpen ERA — but they’re going to have to burn through a bunch of relievers in a day where they’re set to play 18 innings. That’s far from ideal.
The Tigers aren’t very good, but they’ve played some of their best baseball recently. They’ve won 11 of their past 13 games, including a win over the Mariners on Monday. They’re a bit underpriced at +140.
The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-125)
I can’t see how the Brewers get up for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Diamondbacks. They had a walk-off win in last night’s contest, yet they were still officially eliminated from postseason contention.
Now, they have to face one of the best pitchers in the National League. Zac Gallen will make the start for the Diamondbacks, and he’s pitched to a 2.46 ERA this season. He’s been even better over the second half of the year, posting a 1.27 ERA and a 1.74 FIP since the All-Star break. He’s also averaged 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings during that run while limiting opposing batters to a .186 wOBA.
The Brewers will have a solid starter of their own on the mound in Eric Lauer, but he’s not in the same stratosphere as Gallen. He’s racked up a 3.83 ERA and a 4.54 FIP across 152 2/3 innings.
Gallen can beat you even on your best day, and I think this should be far from the Brewers’ best day. These are professional athletes, but I don’t know how they aren’t demoralized in this spot.
The Pick: Royals ML (+155)
The Royals are garnering significant sharp interest for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Guardians. They’ve racked up 28% of the moneyline bets, but those bets have accounted for 53% of the dollars.
They’ll have Daniel Lynch on the mound, who is not a particularly imposing pitcher. However, the Guardians will counter with Cal Quantrill, who is equally unimpressive. He’s managed just 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings this season, resulting in a 4.37 xERA.
The Royals don’t have a lot going for them offensively, but they do put the ball in play at a high frequency. They rank just 22nd in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, so they should have plenty of batted-ball events against Quantrill. The Cleveland right-hander ranks in the 20th percentile in expected batting average and the 23rd percentile in expected slugging, so that’s a good formula for scoring runs.
Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with the Royals at +155.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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