The PGA TOUR heads to Mexico this week for the The World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. El Camaleon is the host course and is a 7,021-yard, par 71 that features paspalum grass greens.
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Collin Morikawa to Win (+1800)
I understand that Morikawa has not been his usual dominant self over this past year or so, but we’re at the point where he has the same odds to win as Maverick McNealy? Come on. No offense to McNealy, who very well could play great this week, but he has zero career PGA TOUR victories, while Morikawa is a two-time Major Champion.
Dating back 48 rounds in this field, Morikawa ranks third in SG: Ball-Striking, third in SG: Tee-to-Green and thirteenth in SG: Total. Obviously it’s been a cold putter that’s let Morikawa down, but we know that’s how much variance is involved with putting. I will gladly back the former No. 2 player in the world at the six shortest odds in this field.
Emiliano Grillo to Win (+2800)
Grillo is not a very good putter. However, when we get a course with paspalum greens, he’s actually above average with the flat stick. I bring this up because Grillo is one of the purest ball-strikers in this field, and routinely has success at resort style courses, such as Corales, which is a comp course to El Camaleon.
In addition to his good comp course history, he boasts quite a track recored at this event as well. In six career starts he’s missed just one cut, while posting three top-10 finishes and an additional T15 as well. Across his past 48 rounds in this field, the Argentine sits fifth in total birdies made, eighth in SG: Ball-Striking and ninth in SG: Total. Grillo has not found the winner’s circle since the 2015 Frys.com Open, but his game has been trending up with a T4 at the ZOZO and T5 at the Sanderson Farms. I like him to contend this week.
Adam Long Top 20 (+260)
Adam Long has played El Camaleon three times and finished T22, T3 and T2 respectively in those starts. In the small sample size of rounds played on paspalum, Long has positive putting splits compared to other surfaces, which will come in handy this week. Overall, Long is one of the better putters in this field, sitting seventh in SG: Putting over his past 48 rounds. He also sits 28th in SG: Approach in that same time frame, and when you put all the stats together, only 18 golfers in this field have gained more total strokes than him in this stretch.
He’s clearly fond of the layout at this course, and I’m very much in the camp of thinking that matters, especially in the top-20 market. I like getting +260 here for Long to simply repeat what he’s done in 67% of his starts at El Camaleon.
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